Katy Watch

41,611 Views | 160 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by SFA Jack Fanatic
nacluth
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Yes I have. They all played Sam twice. In this scenario, UCA and SFA would be 1-1 and HBU 0-2. However, the tiebreaker stipulates that for the tie to be split, one team has to have an advantage. So, even though SFA and UCA did better, it goes to the next common team.

There is not another team that they all played twice, so it goes to the "Three way tiebreaker subsection (c)." That says:

(c) If three (3) or more teams remain tied for a position, regardless of the number of games played against the other tied teams, any won-loss advantage in the combined pool of tied teams shall be used as a seeding tie-breaker. This shall continue through the order of final standings if necessary.

We are 2-1 against HBU and UCA.
HBU is 1-1, UCA is 1-2.

We have the advantage so we advance to the #7 seed. Then it goes to a two way tiebreaker which UCA wins by beating Sam (common opponent) once. UCA #8.
PurpleOut
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Staff
Perfect, I was tired enough thinking about it, didn't want to get into 3-way tie schedules. Thanks for doing that.
TallTexan
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Nacluth, that's some mighty impressive figurin you did to decipher the most complicated tie breaker rules in all of basketball.
MasterAxe
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LOL...all of these scenarios contingent on the least likely thing happening...we win.

Sorry, but I see no way that happens.
nacluth
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Amazingly somewhere along the way the tiebreaker rules started to have an internal logic to them - even if I don't really like it. Like Master says, it's the least likely possibility that we beat Sam, but the only "lock" I had for yesterday was Sam winning senior night at home to close a banner season. Shows what I know.
nacluth
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Ok, for those who have an inkling of an interest left.

Katy locks: Sam, ACU, UNO, SELA, Lamar. (Seeds 2-5 still in flux).

Controls their destiny (win and in): HBU, Corpus, SFA, UCA

Needs help (win plus others lose): NWST

Eliminated: UIW, McNeese, Nicholls

*If SFA, UCA, or NWST lose Saturday, they are eliminated.

**HBU/Corpus winner is the #6 seed. The loser will be the #8 seed unless both SFA and UCA win, then they are eliminated.

***If UCA and SFA lose, then HBU/Corpus loser is the 7 seed, and NWST is the #8 seed.
PurpleOut
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Staff
Tie breaking scenarios are supposed to be sent to league SIDs today. Should be interesting, given the leagues past. Anyone remember the baseball seeding fiasco two years ago (or whenever)?
sfajack05
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Do we even want to go to Katy?

Can barely win a game and I can't see this team winning five in a row (counting the game Saturday).
nacluth
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Is it likely or even possible to win 5 in a row when we haven't won more than three in a row this year? No, probably not. But there is a sense of pride that in a weak conference like the Southland, you can at least make the tournament. Even if it doesn't really change anything about the season, going to Katy (especially the year after you won the tournament) is important for the program.

It will mean a lot to the young guys too to get to play in a tournament environment. As a 7 seed we would be in the weaker side and could win a game or two. While not likely, finishing above .500 is another worthy goal.

Again, very small chance to beat Sam, but if it comes down to the crowd yelling, I will be there to see it happen.
brlionfan44
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nacluth said:

Ok, for those who have an inkling of an interest left.

Katy locks: Sam, ACU, UNO, SELA, Lamar. (Seeds 2-5 still in flux).

Controls their destiny (win and in): HBU, Corpus, SFA, UCA

Needs help (win plus others lose): NWST

Eliminated: UIW, McNeese, Nicholls

*If SFA, UCA, or NWST lose Saturday, they are eliminated.

**HBU/Corpus winner is the #6 seed. The loser will be the #8 seed unless both SFA and UCA win, then they are eliminated.

***If UCA and SFA lose, then HBU/Corpus loser is the 7 seed, and NWST is the #8 seed.
Don't think seeds 2-5 are in flux. Abilene has the 2 because they have any tiebreaker with Southeastern. Southeastern has the 3 because they win any tiebreaker with Lamar or UNO. No idea about the 4 and 5 with Lamar and UNO but UNO people seem to believe that if Lamar beats McNeese, which is probable, Lamar gets the 4 thus making UNO the 5.
nacluth
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Yep you're right.
SFAJack_76
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nacluth
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There's no difference to the result that I figured for SFA, but their tiebreaker rules say that one team has to have an advantage to split the tie.

In the SFA/UCA/(Corpus/HBU loser) tie, they eliminate the Corpus/HBU loser because two teams have an advantage. It works out with the same result this time, but I would be upset if the clear language of the rules led for my team to be eliminated.
nacluth
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Attached the rule in question:
(b) If three (3) or more teams tie for a position, and if the teams combined to split their regular season games against one another, or if they played an uneven number of games against one another, then the tied teams' won-loss results against the next highest-positioned team(s) they all played twice shall be compared. This shall be continued through the final standings until one (1) team gains the advantage, thus the higher seed.


Then Southland's ruling:
A three-way tie cannot be broken except for won-loss results against SHSU. SFA was 1-1, UCA was 1-1, AMCC was 0-2. AMCC eliminated. If ACU finishes untied in final standings, SFA is No. 7 tournament seed by virtue of won-loss advantage against highest-positioned team(s) in final standings, regardless of the number of times played

Again, this time if they continued the tiebreaker it would have had the same results, but they didn't follow their rules.

TallTexan
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Wait, so the Southland isn't following their own rules for tiebreakers?
RedRiverLa
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I think I've got it figured out...wait...no
Lumberjack Battalion
Lumberjacks make great US Army Special Ops Officers - AxeEm!
PurpleOut
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Staff
TallTexan
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I'm pulling for every team not named Sam in Katy.
Pilotgirl
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TallTexan said:

I'm pulling for every team not named Sam in Katy.


I'm pulling for SELA. Veal is a special player and I'd like to see him play in the NCAA tourney (and send SAM to the NIT).
SFAJack_76
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Perhaps ACU. We already have the purple.
TallTexan
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I'd prefer any of the Louisiana schools. It should hurt our recruiting less when they make the tourney and get blown out.

Wouldn't mind ACU though, if we can't sell East Texas over West Texas, we might as well just hang it up anyways.

I just don't want Sam to win. Can't have all those Sam alums up in my messages acting like they're the greatest college fans in the world when they won't even know who the Delaney brothers are until next week.
SFA Jack Fanatic
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TallTexan said:

I'm pulling for every team not named Sam in Katy.

Amen to that! I HATE PRISON TECH WITH A PASSION!
RedRiverLa
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TallTexan said:

I'd prefer any of the Louisiana schools. It should hurt our recruiting less when they make the tourney and get blown out.

Wouldn't mind ACU though, if we can't sell East Texas over West Texas, we might as well just hang it up anyways.

I just don't want Sam to win. Can't have all those Sam alums up in my messages acting like they're the greatest college fans in the world when they won't even know who the Delaney brothers are until next week.
I agree 100%, but Sam seems very beatable to me, lately - and they haven't had the pressure of expectations and one and done like they will now, unlike their opponents who can play much looser. And...Wooten is coaching. For a team that had clinched the #1 seed and the regular season, I noticed an unusual amount of discourse between players last night. And just for the record, if I have to pull for someone, I'm pulling for Southeastern -
Lumberjack Battalion
Lumberjacks make great US Army Special Ops Officers - AxeEm!
RedRiverLa
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And, as a final slap in the face, every time I sign into the Sawmill I'm faced with the pinned article, "Keller focused on what matters as SFA climbs back into Southland race" - oh my.
Lumberjack Battalion
Lumberjacks make great US Army Special Ops Officers - AxeEm!
SFA Jack Fanatic
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My money's on Lamar. They're playing better than anyone right now.
Jacks4460
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Off topic but just watched UH win their first conf. Championship since 1983.. 35 yrs ago.. WOW!!
TallTexan
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RedRiverLa said:

And, as a final slap in the face, every time I sign into the Sawmill I'm faced with the pinned article, "Keller focused on what matters as SFA climbs back into Southland race" - oh my.
We do need an update. Like a breakdown of the season or something.
SFAJack_76
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For anyone going.
RedRiverLa
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Okay, I finally got the math down to my level and just figured out our chances for Katy today.

Lumberjack Battalion
Lumberjacks make great US Army Special Ops Officers - AxeEm!
SFA Jack Fanatic
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RedRiverLa said:

Okay, I finally got the math down to my level and just figured out our chances for Katy today.



Impressive! Only took you two days!
TallTexan
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SFA Jack Fanatic said:

RedRiverLa said:

Okay, I finally got the math down to my level and just figured out our chances for Katy today.



Impressive! Only took you two days!
If it took him more than 4 days, we'd have to revoke his degree and issue him some Sam Houston credentials instead.
No-look
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RedRiverLa said:

Okay, I finally got the math down to my level and just figured out our chances for Katy today.


What? No Kentucky of the Southland? Lol
sfa17
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its not over yet, we are still tourney champions. Dont count us out yet.
PurpleOut
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Staff
SFA Jack Fanatic said:

My money's on Lamar. They're playing better than anyone right now.


Everyone is putting money on Lamar (they have the 3rd best odds from Vegas). They might be playing the best basketball right now, but I think a lot of people are forgetting they have to win 4 games in 4 days. Really hard to do.
nacluth
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Yep, No one has won 4 games in 4 days at Katy yet. This might be a decent year to try, but they have to go through UCA, New Orleans, Sam, and then the SELA/ACU winner. Sorry, but that's as hard as it gets in the Southland this year.
 
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