Katy Watch

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nacluth
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4:47p, 2/27/19
Ok, we're down to the last two weeks of SLC play, so I thought we'd have a thread dedicated to potentials and possibilities. If you don't want to know the odds, go read another thread.

Right now as the season winds down, the Jacks are in sixth place. The potential is for them to climb as high as the fourth seed or fall out of the field. This first post will look at the possibilities against the five lowest SLC teams being eliminated from a SFA perspective (not from the Katy field). If five teams finish below us, we're in.

#1: Incarnate Word - eliminated

#2: McNeese - a SFA win or a McNeese loss

#3: UCA - a SFA win tonight keeps UCA below SFA, but a loss tonight leaves us one game up with three to go.

#4: Nicholls - NSU will probably hold the tiebreaker against us (NWST), so the easiest elimination is two wins and a Nicholls loss.

#5: NWST - Owns the tiebreaker. Hardest to eliminate as they have the easiest remaining schedule. Still two SFA wins and a loss for NWST against SELA would seal it.

There are many more combinations to get to Katy than these, but these are the simplest. Let's see the Jacks handle their late season business.

Ryan
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TallTexan
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5:02p, 2/27/19
I thought I wanted to know the odds, but after reading this I've changed my mind.

I'd like a do over. Mulligan please!
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No-look
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5:05p, 2/27/19
Let's start tonight with a win!
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nacluth
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In reply to TallTexan • 5:10p, 2/27/19
Well with four games left, it's a little more complicated to break it down by team.

Here's the skinny:
3 or 4 SFA wins clinches Katy berth
2 wins and there's a very high probability
1 win gives us potential, but we lose many tiebreakers against current lower placed teams
0 wins almost assures that we're eliminated.
Ryan
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nacluth
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11:03p, 2/27/19
Pretty much worst of all possible scenarios happened tonight with the loss to UCA and NWST and McNeese winning. Nicholls losing was really the best help. Corpus and HBU treading water keeps us in sixth but tenuously.

Four teams one game behind us. Two are two games back. We still have the hardest schedule with very little resolve. Two more hard road games. Then an even tougher home game. Virtually no way we can lose all three and make it. But this time of year, the losers lose, so it's possible everyone else tanks too, but even so it's not pretty.
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SFA Jack Fanatic
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In reply to nacluth • 11:12p, 2/27/19
nacluth said:
Pretty much worst of all possible scenarios happened tonight with the loss to UCA and NWST and McNeese winning. Nicholls losing was really the best help. Corpus and HBU treading water keeps us in sixth but tenuously.

Four teams one game behind us. Two are two games back. We still have the hardest schedule with very little resolve. Two more hard road games. Then an even tougher home game. Virtually no way we can lose all three and make it. But this time of year, the losers lose, so it's possible everyone else tanks too, but even so it's not pretty.

Hard to believe that we're even needing to have this conversation. I won't sleep well tonight.
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PurpleOut
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9:37a, 2/28/19
Staff
There's no way around it anymore, making the conference tournament at this point will require a miracle. We're going to be heavy underdogs in each of the last 3 games, and we don't have anyone on the team or staff that appear to care enough to actually fight for it.

Was at the Mavs game last night so luckily I didn't get to watch our game. But that just makes me more angry today instead of sleeping it off. Central Arkansas is awful, they had lost 7 straight games (and previously lost their last game to NICHOLLS STATE BY 43 POINTS), but we let them put up 92 on us and get embarrassed. It's flat out disgusting. If anyone wants my tickets to the Sam game let me know, would be great for someone to support the Women.

Ended up in a rant, but came here to post the current standings.

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Jacks4460
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In reply to PurpleOut • 11:25a, 2/28/19
PurpleOut said:
There's no way around it anymore, making the conference tournament at this point will require a miracle. We're going to be heavy underdogs in each of the last 3 games, and we don't have anyone on the team or staff that appear to care enough to actually fight for it.

Was at the Mavs game last night so luckily I didn't get to watch our game. But that just makes me more angry today instead of sleeping it off. Central Arkansas is awful, they had lost 7 straight games (and previously lost their last game to NICHOLLS STATE BY 43 POINTS), but we let them put up 92 on us and get embarrassed. It's flat out disgusting. If anyone wants my tickets to the Sam game let me know, would be great for someone to support the Women.

Ended up in a rant, but came here to post the current standings.

Glad you got a little fired up about the situation PurpleOut..I have been this way for 3 weeks.. Do you need me to calm you down a little?? Kinda like you helped me... I think I ranted a little harder tho... Head up buddy..
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CertifiedAxeman98
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1:05p, 2/28/19
I was at the rodeo last night so I didn't watch the game. At this point it looks like the Ladyjacks will be the only ones playing in Katy this year. Looking at stats for the past 5 or 6 games Jacks lose when they allow more than 43% from 3. How do you let another team make 3s at a rate of 45-50%. Our shooting may not be there but we need Chaos and Disruption on the court. If you are only going to score 60-70 you can't give up 80-90 and clearly we are not going to be in the 80's unless we play a team like UIW when most of our offense comes from 2 guys.

Teams like HBU are less talented than SFA but the D they play is like a bunch of pesky gnats they irritate and irritate. They are a bunch of scrappy guys playing in a HS gym but they don't let you get a good shot off and don't let you run your offense like you want and get turnovers. Its very possible that they are playing in Katy and we are sitting at home.

I think when you are operating a short bench with mostly big men and freshman that are healthy for most of the year you can't play the style of defense like we have seen in the past (i.e. most steals in D1). So when you are not turning over the ball for quick easy buckets on a fast break you must do something to limit the other teams scoring. We only see that lock down D in the last few minutes of a game when we are down and we need it more throughout the game.

Something major must happen for the Jacks to be playing in Katy. I hope they don't roll over I want to see them fight to get to Katy that would be a win at this point.
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BigJack85
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In reply to Jacks4460 • 2:12p, 2/28/19
Jacks4460 said:
PurpleOut said:
There's no way around it anymore, making the conference tournament at this point will require a miracle. We're going to be heavy underdogs in each of the last 3 games, and we don't have anyone on the team or staff that appear to care enough to actually fight for it.

Was at the Mavs game last night so luckily I didn't get to watch our game. But that just makes me more angry today instead of sleeping it off. Central Arkansas is awful, they had lost 7 straight games (and previously lost their last game to NICHOLLS STATE BY 43 POINTS), but we let them put up 92 on us and get embarrassed. It's flat out disgusting. If anyone wants my tickets to the Sam game let me know, would be great for someone to support the Women.

Ended up in a rant, but came here to post the current standings.

Glad you got a little fired up about the situation PurpleOut..I have been this way for 3 weeks.. Do you need me to calm you down a little?? Kinda like you helped me... I think I ranted a little harder tho... Head up buddy..


Purple is on target. This is a DEEPLY FLAWED TEAM. Let's not let it get worse and become a deeply flawed PROGRAM. Yes, I'm the ranting and raving A 4ole. I started about the middle of Keller Season 1. I think we caught lightning in a bottle with the leadership Ivan Cannette , and TJ provided in season 2. With those two gone we are simply the emperor without any clothes. Take away the miracles against ACU and HBU and you have a 10th place team. And that is what we are. Losing to a terrible UCA squad makes no sense at all.
Axe 'Em Jacks - Class of 85'
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sfa17
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6:51p, 2/28/19
Kenpom has us at #304 in nation out of 353. UCA and northwestern both team we have lost to are ranked below us. A couple of years ago we were close to top 50 now bottom 50

WE ARE ONE of the worst teams in the country. Just food for thought
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TallTexan
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7:45p, 2/28/19
I recall Underwood(or somebody talking about Underwood) saying that they "recruit shooters and teach them how to play defense." Essentially, that being a good shooter takes instinct/an eye for it, but that defense just takes technique and heart. And one's easier to coach than the other with the right group of kids.

Seems that we've had a lot of struggles with that recently, even going back to last year. We had times when we excelled on D, but lost games because we couldn't score from every position. And that's when we had TJ, Kevon, & Bogues lineups available. They'd sag in on Aaron & John, and play 5 on 4. Hence why we saw a lot of Canete, even with his lackadaisical approach to ballhandling skills.

But, we really need to get back to basics next year, add a few instant impact scorers, & start punching these SLC teams in the nose again.
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CertifiedAxeman98
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In reply to TallTexan • 10:53a, 3/1/19
Agreed. You can teach D. It is mostly positioning & hustle.
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nacluth
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10:14p, 3/2/19
Well the win in Lamar would have done wonders toward keeping us ahead of the crowd, but now we're in it.

Two games left tied for 6-8th seed with Corpus and HBU. NWST and UCA one game back. ACU is the most important game of our season. Win and it gives us an odds on chance of making it - plus a potential tiebreaker by beating ACU twice (honestly don't think it comes into play in any likely scenario, but it's the best we have right now).

Remaining meaningful games.

SFA: ACU, Sam
Corpus: McNeese, HBU
HBU: UIW, Corpus
UCA: Sam, NWST
NWST: Nicholls, UCA

It helps and hurts that the teams tied with us play each other and the teams one game behind play each other. At least one team in each pair will get a win.

With two losses, the only scenarios where we make it are:
1) if UCA loses to Sam, NWST loses to Nicholls, and UCA beats NWST, and it's a head to head tiebreaker or a 3 way TB with UCA and Corpus (we win because we beat ACU).

2.) Corpus and UCA lose out.

With two wins, we're in.

With one win:
if HBU beats Corpus, we're in in most tiebreakers regardless of outcome.
If UCA beats NWST, we're in in most tiebreakers.
NWST winning out causes the most problems.
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No-look
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8:16a, 3/3/19
Well, it is March. We played a lot better last night. We can beat ACU. We beat them at home and they are down a couple starters I believe. Wouldn't surprise me if we win last two.
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SFA Jack Fanatic
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In reply to nacluth • 8:17a, 3/3/19



It's unbelievable that we have to even consider these things just to make the freakin' SLC tournament!
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sfa17
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12:55p, 3/3/19
If get into Katy, we will need a miracle to win 4 games in a row.
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PurpleOut
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12:59p, 3/3/19
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Writing my Power Rankings, which is really just the current standings, along with all remaining schedules and tournament predictions. Ya'll won't like it.
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BigJack85
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1:04p, 3/3/19
We're not going.... surprise. We probably drop ACU , close but no cigar and then get routed by Sammie at home. Purple , you've been quiet on the Keller front. Any thoughts beyond give him one more year ?
Axe 'Em Jacks - Class of 85'
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PurpleOut
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2:45p, 3/3/19
Staff
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nacluth
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3:06p, 3/3/19
Yeah I pretty much agree with how you having it play out. I kind of think HBU will top Corpus but really that's just nitpicking.
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PurpleOut
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In reply to nacluth • 3:44p, 3/3/19
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nacluth said:
Yeah I pretty much agree with how you having it play out. I kind of think HBU will top Corpus but really that's just nitpicking.
Yeah, that game is going to be trouble for us regardless.
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MasterAxe
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9:40p, 3/6/19
I think theee could be a 4 way tie for 8th.

We lose, finish 7-11
UCA loses to NWST, both finish 7-11
Nicholls wins, finishes 7-11

Oof
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PurpleOut
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9:48p, 3/6/19
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Ha, I just tweeted the same thing.

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PurpleOut
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9:50p, 3/6/19
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The easiest path however is this. Win and have UCA lose to NWST.
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nacluth
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9:52p, 3/6/19
I'm going to work up all the possibilities. They are numerous. But...if we win, we're in.
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PurpleOut
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In reply to nacluth • 9:56p, 3/6/19
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nacluth said:
I'm going to work up all the possibilities. They are numerous. But...if we win, we're in.
I'm stopping after looking at the 3-way tie scenario. Going to be hard to figure that one out until we see who would be ranked next. But it's a scenario I'm more than happy to let you figure out.
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pa guy
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10:33p, 3/6/19
Playoff scenarios!!?? Heck, I'm still trying to figure out how that lady at the half of the Alabama game was able to magically change outfits.
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nacluth
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11:21p, 3/6/19
I just wrote a really long post and it gray screened and didn't post, so before I type it again the gist is: we beat Sam we're the #7 seed regardless of scenario.
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nacluth
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11:30p, 3/6/19
Pretty simple actually. We win Saturday, we're the #7 seed. We lose, we're done.

Ryan
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nacluth
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11:35p, 3/6/19
If we lose and NWST wins then all the scenarios end up with it going to aggregate wins against all the teams involved in the tiebreaker. NWST in that case would have beaten SFA, UCA, and Nicholls each twice going 6-0. They would advance in the 8 seed.

If we lose and UCA wins, they are the #7 seed over the HBU/Corpus loser.

Even though they could have the same record, Nicholls has been eliminated from Katy already.
Ryan
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nacluth
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11:37p, 3/6/19
If we win and UCA wins, we're the #7 seed and UCA is #8. HBU/Corpus loser eliminated.

If we win and UCA loses, we're the #7 seed. HBU/Corpus loser is #8.
Ryan
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TallTexan
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In reply to nacluth • 6:49a, 3/7/19
nacluth said:
If we win and UCA wins, we're the #7 seed and UCA is #8. HBU/Corpus loser eliminated.

If we win and UCA loses, we're the #7 seed. HBU/Corpus loser is #8.


So still, win and in?
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nacluth
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In reply to TallTexan • 7:11a, 3/7/19
Yep.
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PurpleOut
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7:27a, 3/7/19
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All teams in the three-way tie scenario (SFA, HBU, UCA) haven't all played twice however. So that tie breaker will still go to the next highest team that all three teams played twice.

We'd have 2 spots to work with, but I don't think it's 100% win and we're in. Unless you've looked at every possible option of who would be that next ranked team.
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