What's up Jack Fanatic? Are you still holding down the fort or have you moved to higher ground?

PurpleOut said:

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Looks like it's about to move to a Category 4.

Weather channel said the area is set to lose so much timber that you could see the difference via satellite.

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That happened in both Ike and Rita. Lots of timber salvage efforts. It was amazing what Hugo did to South Carolina timberlands in 1989. Long term effects to wood products manufacturing.

Timber prices have been severely depressed for a while. There is a glut in the market. My stepfather who has been hauling wood for 15 years is set to get laid off at the end of the month because the mills are running out of money. Too much wood, not enough demand.

Ironically, big storms like this are good for the overall demand in wood products and helped prop the market after Harvey. Laura will probably not change the market much. Hopefully everyone will stay safe.

It's kinda crazy how lumber recently has been at highs with timber at record lows.

I think this storm may change that some, but who knows.

One of the craziest things to me about hurricanes is their sheer size. Just absolutely massive.

Hope all of our gulf coast Jacks in the path headed to higher ground.

Storm surge all the way to NOLA.

National Hurricane Center is using the term "Unsurvivable Storm Surge". Very scary for the people in SE Texas and all along the Louisiana coast. PRAY FOR EVERYONE who has not evacuated from low areas.

SFA Jack Fanatic said:

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National Hurricane Center is using the term "Unsurvivable Storm Surge". Very scary for the people in SE Texas and all along the Louisiana coast. PRAY FOR EVERYONE who has not evacuated from low areas.

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I mapped the area & thats 120 miles of unsurvivable storm surge for the 10+ feet areas they're predicting.

Could not even imagine being in the path of that.

While I am.grateful that Laura has moved to the east so as to avoid Houston mostly, my heart breaks for southeast and east Texas, as well as Louisiana. The Weather Channel is in Nac and Lake Charles. They are comparing it to Rita. I was in Nac during Rita for grad school and didn't have electricity for a week. Left my apartment and stayed in Jacksonville with my mom because it was so hot.

I hope east Texas is prepared...so often the area doesnt take hurricanes too seriously. We've been prepped down here for a week. Didn't evacuate because my mom is not a good traveler. I had several friends who evacuated and now regret it...but you never know with these things! Stay safe everyone!

PurpleOut said:

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I was in school during Rita, I lived at Sunridge Apartments and I don't think we had any power issues strangely (at least not for a long period).

I remember going to Sport Shack at noon the day they cancelled school, then partied out in the weather that night...like a smart 21 year old. Next few days after I volunteered at the Coliseum to help those that needed shelter.

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My apartment was I think called The French quarter and right near University, off of Stallings so close to Sunridge. I guess we were on different grids...but no power for several days! My party days were over by then...we just got drunk in study groups at our houses lol I had to have A/C tho. Hope we don't lose power here because that is one thing I just gotta have!

100% accurate

Wondering out loud...

How many casinos, especially the ones in Lake Charles, will be devastated by this hurricane. National Hurricane Center is now predicting 150 mph at landfall, only 5 mph below being a Cat 5.

Last I saw, theyre expecting 80% of the town to see flooding, not to mention the wind.

I'm also worried about that I10 bridge. It's old & not rated well structurally.

nacluth said:

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Timber prices have been severely depressed for a while. There is a glut in the market. My stepfather who has been hauling wood for 15 years is set to get laid off at the end of the month because the mills are running out of money. Too much wood, not enough demand.

Ironically, big storms like this are good for the overall demand in wood products and helped prop the market after Harvey. Laura will probably not change the market much. Hopefully everyone will stay safe.

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Timber prices have been essentially flat since the Great Recession, which was really a depression in wood products manufacturing. Housing starts dropped to record lows below 500,000, so demand went through the floor. Many mills shut down.

Any mill running out of money today should not be in business. Lumber prices are higher, by a lot, than I have seen in over forty years in the business. Supply is down for various reasons, and demand is up with housing starts at about 1.5 million.

SFAJack_76 said:

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nacluth said:

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Timber prices have been severely depressed for a while. There is a glut in the market. My stepfather who has been hauling wood for 15 years is set to get laid off at the end of the month because the mills are running out of money. Too much wood, not enough demand.

Ironically, big storms like this are good for the overall demand in wood products and helped prop the market after Harvey. Laura will probably not change the market much. Hopefully everyone will stay safe.

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Timber prices have been essentially flat since the Great Recession, which was really a depression in wood products manufacturing. Housing starts dropped to record lows below 500,000, so demand went through the floor. Many mills shut down.

Any mill running out of money today should not be in business. Lumber prices are higher, by a lot, than I have seen in over forty years in the business. Supply is down for various reasons, and demand is up with housing starts at about 1.5 million.

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Never seen prices like this on lumber. Im a home builder and I bid a house three months ago for a couple and now the house is costing $13,000 more for lumber. They "say" the issue is in production caused by the shutdown.

My body says go to bed, my brain says "but Jim Cantore" is talking about hurricanes.

Yall in Deep ETX/LA be safe.

No-look said:

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SFAJack_76 said:

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Timber prices have been essentially flat since the Great Recession, which was really a depression in wood products manufacturing. Housing starts dropped to record lows below 500,000, so demand went through the floor. Many mills shut down.

Any mill running out of money today should not be in business. Lumber prices are higher, by a lot, than I have seen in over forty years in the business. Supply is down for various reasons, and demand is up with housing starts at about 1.5 million.

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Never seen prices like this on lumber. Im a home builder and I bid a house three months ago for a couple and now the house is costing $13,000 more for lumber. They "say" the issue is in production caused by the shutdown.

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I certainly don't know all the dynamics driving these lumber prices. Western Canadian lumber production is way down due to the pine beetle kill. That won't come back for many years. Wood products production was deemed to be an essential business, so was not shut down. However, many mills have lost time due to employees being out for Covid related issues.

There have been several new lumber mills built in the last couple of years in the south, including Angelina Forest Products near Lufkin. Other mills have had significant capital investment to increase production. There have been a very few older, less efficient mills shut down. Mortgage rates are at very low levels.

Demand is currently ahead of supply. Low mortgage rates win out over higher material costs.

PurpleOut said:

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Damage and flooding doesn't appear to be as bad as forecasted for the Lake Charles area. At least from what TWC is showing.

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That's good news. Definitely could have been a lot worse.

Problem for Lake Charles now is rebuilding while the spotlight goes elsewhere.

McNeese

Dang! And that basketball facility was just built recently....I knownthe roof of their education building is gone, too.

For those in the DFW area.