Gonna be curious how they feel about this matchup.

https://bobcatnation.com/bobcatbb/viewforum.php?f=20

Does anybody know what Demmings injured on the interception? I couldn't tell live.

So still a chance for a semi finals game in Homer Bryce.

Seemed more than 8,000

FCS second-round playoff attendance:
at Montana State: 20,867
at Tarleton State: 19,742
at Montana: 18,197
at NDSU: 10,464
at Lehigh: 8,848
at SFA: 8,645
at Mercer: 3,042
at UC Davis: Tonight

— Opta FCS Football (@OptaAnalystFCS) December 6, 2025

Lumberjacks showed up today - on and off the field! Thank you to our students, staff, faculty, alumni and community for coming out to give us a real home field advantage! #AxeEm https://t.co/KAlWIusx88

— Dr. Neal Weaver (@SFASU_President) December 7, 2025

KYLON-PYLON-ONE HANDED INCREDIBLE CATCH

ARE YOU SERIOUS KYLON HARRIS!? GET THAT ON #SCTOP10!!@SFA_FOOTBALL IS BACK ON TOP IN THE 4TH!@ESPNAssignDesk x @NCAA_FCS pic.twitter.com/5LHHipeWGK

— Southland Conference (@SouthlandSports) December 6, 2025

4 turnovers for Yale. Without them, we're hosting a quarterfinal game next week.

Ljacks&Longnecks said:

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https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1JhrvHvz6r/

Got this on FB. Montana St player taunting Yale players after the win....then his coach pulls him away and they get into quite the shouting match.
I present our next opponents.

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I'd be nailing his ass to the bench - permanently.

SFAXE93 said:

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Seemed more than 8,000

FCS second-round playoff attendance:
at Montana State: 20,867
at Tarleton State: 19,742
at Montana: 18,197
at NDSU: 10,464
at Lehigh: 8,848
at SFA: 8,645
at Mercer: 3,042
at UC Davis: Tonight

— Opta FCS Football (@OptaAnalystFCS) December 6, 2025

Lumberjacks showed up today - on and off the field! Thank you to our students, staff, faculty, alumni and community for coming out to give us a real home field advantage! #AxeEm https://t.co/KAlWIusx88

— Dr. Neal Weaver (@SFASU_President) December 7, 2025

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That can't be right. Probably the 2nd or 3rd time it seemed like the attendance numbers are off. Looked closer to 12,000-13,000.

Maybe McBroom could shed some light on what is counted. People over 21? Crowd members in long sleeve shirts ?

Well, # 32 Davis is their leading rusher so no chance he gets booted.

I glanced at a Montana St board about the Yale game and the coach/player event and it appears from a couple of comments that this was not a surprise or one off.

Great news!

I'll be dam*ed.......be on a flight back from Vegas at that time. Have to look into changing it.

Figure Montana St made that call. Cold night in Bozeman.
And let's not forget when SFA canceled out of a game at Bozeman in 2024.

Surprised to see they have 15 Texas kids on their roster.

They needed to blow a little more frigid air into the faces of our Texas boys.

Had Grok look at the remaining teams for fun. It goofed on where the championship game would be played.

Remaining Teams in the 2025 FCS Playoffs
As of December 7, 2025, the quarterfinal round features the following eight teams advancing from the second round:


Seed
Team
Regular Season Record
Conference
Notable Playoff Results2
Montana State (MONTST)
10-2
Big Sky
Def. Yale 21-13
3
Montana (MONT)
11-1
Big Sky
Def. South Dakota State 50-29
4
Tarleton State (TARLET)
11-1
United Athletic
Def. North Dakota 31-13
7
Stephen F. Austin (SFA)
10-2
Southland
Def. Abilene Christian 41-34
8
UC Davis (UCD)
8-3
Big Sky
Def. Rhode Island 47-? (final score pending confirmation, but advanced)
11
South Dakota (SODAK)
8-4
Missouri Valley
Def. Mercer 47-0
12
Villanova (NOVA)
9-2
CAA
Def. Lehigh 14-7
-
Illinois State (ILLST)
8-4
Missouri Valley
Def. North Dakota State 29-28 (upset #1 seed)

Quarterfinal Matchups (December 12-13, 2025):

• SFA (7) @ MONTST (2) Friday, 9:00 PM ET (ESPN)
• TARLET (4) @ NOVA (12) Saturday, 12:00 PM ET (ESPN)
• SODAK (11) @ MONT (3) Saturday, 3:30 PM ET (ABC)
• ILLST @ UCD (8) Friday, 9:00 PM ET (ESPN)

Semifinals are scheduled for December 20 (TBA), with the national championship on January 5, 2026, in Frisco, TX.
Prediction Methodology: Based on Common Opponents
To predict each team's chance to win the national championship, I analyzed performance against common opponents where possible, combined with overall strength metrics (e.g., offensive/defensive rankings, strength of schedule implied by conference play and upsets).

• Big Sky teams (MONTST, MONT, UCD) share multiple common opponents (e.g., MONTST def. Montana 31-28; both beat Northern Arizona decisively; UCD lost to MONTST but beat shared foes like Idaho). MONTST edges MONT on head-to-head and offensive dominance (top-ranked offense).
• Missouri Valley teams (SODAK, ILLST) share opponents like UNI (SODAK win 17-14, ILLST win 42-? implied strong) and Indiana State; ILLST's upset over #1 NDSU (a mutual MVFC powerhouse) boosts their edge over SODAK.
• Cross-conference matchups (e.g., SFA vs. MONTST, TARLET vs. NOVA) have fewer direct commons, so I weighted recent form, playoff upsets, and rankings (e.g., SFA's #2 defense vs. MONTST's #1 offense gives SFA a puncher's chance).
• Win probabilities for each game were derived from these comparisons (e.g., margin of victory against shared teams like Eastern Washington for Big Sky squads). Tournament odds were then simulated via a bracket tree, accounting for all paths to the title.

This yields the following estimated probabilities for each team to win the 2025 FCS championship:


Team
Chance to Win Championship
Key Rationale (Based on Common Opponents & Form)Montana (MONT)
30.0%
Strong vs. shared Big Sky foes (e.g., +27 avg. margin vs. mutual opponents like EWU, Idaho); 11-1 record, dominant playoff win; slight edge in potential semis/finals.
Montana State (MONTST)
27.3%
Top offense crushes common Big Sky opponents (e.g., beat MONT head-to-head); balanced rankings; favored in bracket path.
Tarleton State (TARLET)
20.4%
11-1 mark with solid showings vs. shared UA/Southland rivals (e.g., beat common foe Eastern Kentucky); good offense/defense balance but tougher semi path.
Stephen F. Austin (SFA)
7.7%
Elite #2 defense shines vs. limited commons (e.g., held ACU to low yards in rematch context); underdog but capable of upsets.
Illinois State (ILLST)
6.9%
Momentum from NDSU upset (shared MVFC strength); competitive vs. SODAK-like foes but weaker defense (#18) limits ceiling.
South Dakota (SODAK)
2.9%
Blowout playoff win but 8-4 record; middling vs. MVFC commons (e.g., lost to UNI narrowly); long odds in bracket.
UC Davis (UCD)
2.8%
Solid vs. Big Sky shared opponents but losses to top seeds (e.g., to MONTST); #8 offense but porous #22 defense.
Villanova (NOVA)
2.0%
8-game streak with CAA wins, but lower rankings (#13 offense, #20 defense); minimal commons with bracket foes; biggest underdog.

Overall Outlook: The Big Sky duo of Montana and Montana State dominate projections due to superior performance against overlapping high-level opponents (e.g., both averaged 35+ points vs. mutual conference rivals). Expect a championship clash between them if they advance. Upset potential lies with ILLST's hot streak and SFA's defense. These odds sum to 100% and reflect ~1,000 simulated bracket paths. Actual results may vary with injuries or weather.

I know this is petty of me and we have much bigger things to worry about but I can't help but get a little bitter at some of the FCS coverage that I've seen on social media. SFA has been doubted all year by FCS fans and the rankings system until the very end and they still are being doubted. Lots of forums that hint at the fact that they think we shouldn't be here.

SFA will have to make some more history on Saturday.

The Lumberjacks have never won in the state of Montana.

SFA is 0-6-0 in the state of Montana

L 2012: Montana State 43 SFA 35 (Bozeman)

L 2009: Montana 51 SFA 0 (Missoula)

L 2005: Montana State 42 SFA 6 (Bozeman)

L 1997: Montana 24 SFA 10 (Missoula)

L 1995: Montana 70 SFA 14 (Missoula)

L 1992: Montana State 13 SFA 6 (Bozeman)

Yeah, I was at the 1992 game in Bozeman for a half. 2nd game for new head coach John Pearce.
Weather was beautiful all morning, then in came a cold front 30-45 minutes before kickoff. So there was light steady rain and a dropping temp. Had I been alone I would have stayed all game however, my wife was there, it was actually a planned vacation with more travel , I had just worked in this game.
So by half even many Montana St fans were leaving and our next destination was Missoula for the evening. Folks warned us if the Bozeman pass got icy we wouldn't get to Missoula. Soooo, that meant we left at the half.

14jacks said:

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I know this is petty of me and we have much bigger things to worry about but I can't help but get a little bitter at some of the FCS coverage that I've seen on social media. SFA has been doubted all year by FCS fans and the rankings system until the very end and they still are being doubted. Lots of forums that hint at the fact that they think we shouldn't be here.

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That is something SFA can only overcome with consistent playoff appearances over several years. Our former administration and AD's put us in this spot and it unfortunately will take a while to gain respect. As long as Carthel can keep players and coaches intact, it will not take very many years.
I live in Montgomery, and when I wear SFA shirts in public, I get eyerolls and disrespect from a lot of people. Time and consistent success is the answer.

I was wondering how the coaches can prepare our players mentally for the numbing cold that's ahead, other that insulation and warming methods. Then I realized, they can't.

SFA Jack Fanatic said:

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I was wondering how the coaches can prepare our players mentally for the numbing cold that's ahead, other that insulation and warming methods. Then I realized, they can't.

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Atleast our QB will be ready. Maybe the rest of the guys can get a practice or two done over in the Pilgrims flash freeze room?

SFA Jack Fanatic said:

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I was wondering how the coaches can prepare our players mentally for the numbing cold that's ahead, other that insulation and warming methods. Then I realized, they can't.

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In the future we will have an indoor practice facility. For now I say they go to Lufkin and use their indoor facility, crank the AC all the way up to get it as cold as possible, and have coolers filled with ice water to dunk the ball in before every rep(it's what my coach in HS did if it was supposed to be rainy). I would also have the players scrimmage with AirPods in and the volume cranked up loud. Because it's going to be cold. It's going to be windy. It's gonna be loud. And it's probably going to be wet(freezing rain and snow is projected). I don't expect either team to come out to it without at least 2 turnovers each due to the conditions we will be facing.

Realistically they're gonna get there on Wednesday in the morning and have a day and a half to practice in the elements.

I expect a lot of Wimbley. Those deep 50/50 balls will not be as sure of a thing in the Montana wind.