2025 NCAA Division I (FCS) PLAYOFFS

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Jyank24
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6:55p, 12/6/25
Gonna be curious how they feel about this matchup.

https://bobcatnation.com/bobcatbb/viewforum.php?f=20
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PurpleForever
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6:58p, 12/6/25
Does anybody know what Demmings injured on the interception? I couldn't tell live.
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SFAXE93
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7:03p, 12/6/25
So still a chance for a semi finals game in Homer Bryce.
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SFAXE93
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7:08p, 12/6/25
Seemed more than 8,000


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SFAXE93
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7:22p, 12/6/25
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TalkingSports
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In reply to nacluth • 7:26p, 12/6/25
nacluth said:
Chase, if you read this later, you've done an excellent job calling the game - especially with no color guy, but you got me pumped all game long.

Just now reading and I really appreciate this! Big win for the Jacks! I was on the edge of my seat the whole game, so I am glad that translated over the broadcast! Now, let's go get a win in Montana!
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Ljacks&Longnecks
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In reply to PurpleForever • 7:28p, 12/6/25
Demmings

Agreed that Demmings got up from the pic and looked to be slow moving but quickly surrounded by teammates.
He did not play in the remainder of game. Lets hope it is/was only something minor.
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RichieVan
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In reply to SFAXE93 • 7:56p, 12/6/25
4 turnovers for Yale. Without them, we're hosting a quarterfinal game next week.
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djsfw57
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In reply to Ljacks&Longnecks • 8:39p, 12/6/25
Ljacks&Longnecks said:
https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1JhrvHvz6r/

Got this on FB. Montana St player taunting Yale players after the win....then his coach pulls him away and they get into quite the shouting match.
I present our next opponents.

I'd be nailing his ass to the bench - permanently.
SFA, Class of 1979
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BigJack85
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In reply to SFAXE93 • 8:58p, 12/6/25
SFAXE93 said:
Seemed more than 8,000




That can't be right. Probably the 2nd or 3rd time it seemed like the attendance numbers are off. Looked closer to 12,000-13,000.

Maybe McBroom could shed some light on what is counted. People over 21? Crowd members in long sleeve shirts ?
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Ljacks&Longnecks
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In reply to djsfw57 • 9:02p, 12/6/25
Well, # 32 Davis is their leading rusher so no chance he gets booted.

I glanced at a Montana St board about the Yale game and the coach/player event and it appears from a couple of comments that this was not a surprise or one off.
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SFAJack_76
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9:14p, 12/6/25
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nacluth
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9:29p, 12/6/25
Great news!
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SFAJack_76
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9:59p, 12/6/25
Travel to Montana to play at night on a six day week. Who did we make mad?

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Ljacks&Longnecks
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10:27p, 12/6/25
I'll be dam*ed.......be on a flight back from Vegas at that time. Have to look into changing it.

Figure Montana St made that call. Cold night in Bozeman.
And let's not forget when SFA canceled out of a game at Bozeman in 2024.
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jboy93
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10:28p, 12/6/25
Surprised to see they have 15 Texas kids on their roster.
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SFA Jack Fanatic
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In reply to SFAJack_76 • 11:14p, 12/6/25
They needed to blow a little more frigid air into the faces of our Texas boys.
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Texasheli
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7:56a
Had Grok look at the remaining teams for fun. It goofed on where the championship game would be played.

Remaining Teams in the 2025 FCS Playoffs
As of December 7, 2025, the quarterfinal round features the following eight teams advancing from the second round:


Seed
Team
Regular Season Record
Conference
Notable Playoff Results2
Montana State (MONTST)
10-2
Big Sky
Def. Yale 21-13
3
Montana (MONT)
11-1
Big Sky
Def. South Dakota State 50-29
4
Tarleton State (TARLET)
11-1
United Athletic
Def. North Dakota 31-13
7
Stephen F. Austin (SFA)
10-2
Southland
Def. Abilene Christian 41-34
8
UC Davis (UCD)
8-3
Big Sky
Def. Rhode Island 47-? (final score pending confirmation, but advanced)
11
South Dakota (SODAK)
8-4
Missouri Valley
Def. Mercer 47-0
12
Villanova (NOVA)
9-2
CAA
Def. Lehigh 14-7
-
Illinois State (ILLST)
8-4
Missouri Valley
Def. North Dakota State 29-28 (upset #1 seed)

Quarterfinal Matchups (December 12-13, 2025):
  • SFA (7) @ MONTST (2) Friday, 9:00 PM ET (ESPN)
  • TARLET (4) @ NOVA (12) Saturday, 12:00 PM ET (ESPN)
  • SODAK (11) @ MONT (3) Saturday, 3:30 PM ET (ABC)
  • ILLST @ UCD (8) Friday, 9:00 PM ET (ESPN)
Semifinals are scheduled for December 20 (TBA), with the national championship on January 5, 2026, in Frisco, TX.
Prediction Methodology: Based on Common Opponents
To predict each team's chance to win the national championship, I analyzed performance against common opponents where possible, combined with overall strength metrics (e.g., offensive/defensive rankings, strength of schedule implied by conference play and upsets).
  • Big Sky teams (MONTST, MONT, UCD) share multiple common opponents (e.g., MONTST def. Montana 31-28; both beat Northern Arizona decisively; UCD lost to MONTST but beat shared foes like Idaho). MONTST edges MONT on head-to-head and offensive dominance (top-ranked offense).
  • Missouri Valley teams (SODAK, ILLST) share opponents like UNI (SODAK win 17-14, ILLST win 42-? implied strong) and Indiana State; ILLST's upset over #1 NDSU (a mutual MVFC powerhouse) boosts their edge over SODAK.
  • Cross-conference matchups (e.g., SFA vs. MONTST, TARLET vs. NOVA) have fewer direct commons, so I weighted recent form, playoff upsets, and rankings (e.g., SFA's #2 defense vs. MONTST's #1 offense gives SFA a puncher's chance).
  • Win probabilities for each game were derived from these comparisons (e.g., margin of victory against shared teams like Eastern Washington for Big Sky squads). Tournament odds were then simulated via a bracket tree, accounting for all paths to the title.
This yields the following estimated probabilities for each team to win the 2025 FCS championship:


Team
Chance to Win Championship
Key Rationale (Based on Common Opponents & Form)Montana (MONT)
30.0%
Strong vs. shared Big Sky foes (e.g., +27 avg. margin vs. mutual opponents like EWU, Idaho); 11-1 record, dominant playoff win; slight edge in potential semis/finals.
Montana State (MONTST)
27.3%
Top offense crushes common Big Sky opponents (e.g., beat MONT head-to-head); balanced rankings; favored in bracket path.
Tarleton State (TARLET)
20.4%
11-1 mark with solid showings vs. shared UA/Southland rivals (e.g., beat common foe Eastern Kentucky); good offense/defense balance but tougher semi path.
Stephen F. Austin (SFA)
7.7%
Elite #2 defense shines vs. limited commons (e.g., held ACU to low yards in rematch context); underdog but capable of upsets.
Illinois State (ILLST)
6.9%
Momentum from NDSU upset (shared MVFC strength); competitive vs. SODAK-like foes but weaker defense (#18) limits ceiling.
South Dakota (SODAK)
2.9%
Blowout playoff win but 8-4 record; middling vs. MVFC commons (e.g., lost to UNI narrowly); long odds in bracket.
UC Davis (UCD)
2.8%
Solid vs. Big Sky shared opponents but losses to top seeds (e.g., to MONTST); #8 offense but porous #22 defense.
Villanova (NOVA)
2.0%
8-game streak with CAA wins, but lower rankings (#13 offense, #20 defense); minimal commons with bracket foes; biggest underdog.

Overall Outlook: The Big Sky duo of Montana and Montana State dominate projections due to superior performance against overlapping high-level opponents (e.g., both averaged 35+ points vs. mutual conference rivals). Expect a championship clash between them if they advance. Upset potential lies with ILLST's hot streak and SFA's defense. These odds sum to 100% and reflect ~1,000 simulated bracket paths. Actual results may vary with injuries or weather.
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MaysHallSurvivor
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10:21a
Yesterday was my first game since 2019 and I have a few thoughts.

1) I think finals kept a few students from attending the game. It's nice to see Lumberjacks take pride in their academics. That said, Purple Haze was loud and involved! Holy cow, I haven't seen that kind of energy before and I love it. From opening snap to the end.

2) I'm not sure SFA could've had a better day. The weather was amazing and campus looked amazing. Take pride in your university! Many compliments from my wife.

3) WHAT A GAME - an instant classic. The in-state rivalry is strong and respectful. This is pure college football at its best. No BS, no media-induced drama, just a clean game with constant action. We're so lucky to have this team.

4) Wow, we now sell alcohol at games? I got to drink at beer at Homer Bryce while we won a playoff game. A lifelong dream.

5) Thank you to everyone there. My wife went to SMU so this was her first Lumberjack game. We'll be back!
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TalkingSports
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3:31p
In case anyone was wondering what the inside of our broadcast booth looked like during the matchup against ACU. Safe to say we were excited!

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