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Stephen F. Austin Basketball

What We Learned: Stephen F. Austin 76, Abilene Christian 66

January 18, 2018
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Stephen F. Austin has been toying with the blood pressure of fans since the 2017-18 season started. Some call it "playing down or up to competition," but that's not really the whole picture. The Lumberjacks win by throwing physical punches (only partly figuratively), and some teams handle it better than others. 

Besides the lone blemish on their conference record, SFA is still managing to win, despite a weeks-long shooting slump that has fans scratching their heads and reaching for heart medication. On Wednesday night, it was no different: a good but not great Abilene Christian team fought hard in a game full of big runs for 20 minutes. What looked like it was going to be a blowout with SFA up 12 in the first half quickly turned into a Lumberjacks 11-point deficit - 10 at the half. 

Although the Lumberjacks dominated the second half on their way to a relatively relaxing finish, they didn't do it by shooting a whole lot better.

But what has made this SFA team so hard to beat all season has been that exactly: when one aspect of their game isn't working, they can usually find another that is. Here's what else we learned on Wednesday night:

The simple formula to win when you shoot under 40%? Take more shots -

Even when the Lumberjacks were shooting fairly well in the non-conference, their ability to dominate the number of productive possessions has been a key stat in almost every game. Whether it be by turning over teams - the area they lead all of Division 1 basketball in - or outrebounding them, or both like it was on Wednesday, SFA can count on a significant advantage in field goal attempts almost every time they hit the floor.

On Wednesday, they jacked 59 attempts from the field to ACU's 43. That almost seems fluky until you realize it happens all the time. Some of it has to do with SFA's frequent fouling issues on the defensive side, but not all of it - especially against ACU where they actually were on the receiving end of more free throws than their counterparts from Abilene. 

During our scouting report before the game, we pointed out that for ACU to be successful, they needed to do what teams haven't against SFA: find a way to even the attempts from the field. They didn't.

I'm still convinced that the SFA shooting woes of the last month are a temporary condition. A larger sample size of success in that area exists this season than not. In the meantime, though, against Southland Conference competition, they can still get the job done every night by making sure they get more basketballs in the air.

So far they have - 236 more times, in fact - over the length of the season.

ACU is probably a year away from being a really good team -

Joe Golding has had a difficult job taking a team in transition to the Division 1 level without a whole lot of culture behind his program. The ACU women's program saw almost immediate success in the Southland, but that's what sustained expectation of victory can do - they were pretty good before the transition too. The ACU men haven't been to an NCAA Tournament, even at the Division II level, in almost 20 years. It was a much harder job for Golding than for his women's team counterpart, head coach Julie Goodenough.

ACU has a pretty campus and some money to spend on athletics but Abilene is an isolated town and, especially without the allure of postseason eligibility, recruiting was always going to be a hard sell in the transition years. Golding has found a way, anyway.

That's not to say ACU is a particularly strong team this year. They have a few decent wins but they have more bad losses. You have to look beyond the win-loss resume, though, to see what Golding is doing. The pieces are in place for a very, very good team next year if they can spend the rest of this season focused on improving.

Even this year, they'll be a conference tournament team and have the talent to get hot down the road. They're not a contender in 2017-18 but they absolutely could be a year from now.

SFA should be an improved team next year too on paper and there might not be a lot of room at the top, but Golding should get his due: he's done a lot with a little at ACU.

Until proven otherwise, it's time to just admit SFA isn't a good shooting team and find other ways -

I stand by my belief that they'll emerge from the funk. While we're waiting for that, it should just be an expectation that SFA will have to rely on their defense to win. They could sweep the rest of their games without ever shooting better than 45%. 

Now, that will be a hard thing to do, and we can all hope it doesn't come down to that. But this team remains good at two things: turning over the other team and getting point blank shots. 

The former is how they survive these shooting slumps. The latter is all about the excellent offensive coaching of Kyle Keller and his staff, finding ways to get struggling players looks they can make. 

This is a perfect example from late in the game on Wednesday: Shannon Bogues, who is struggling as much as anyone from the field right now, needed a quick shot of confidence and an exclamation mark on a victory after a rough night. Have a look at the way this play was drawn up:

Comeaux has been dangerous on his cuts to the basket of late and SFA knew he'd get some attention. When he crosses the paint, he carries all the baseline protection with him in ACU's man-to-man defense and completely clears out the far side. Bogues, even when he can't make a shot, is consistently the most explosive athlete on the floor. All this play required is he get by one man, who already had taken a bad angle, and the baseline was wide open. Comeaux draws the protection away (if the defenders had switched, John would have been open for the pass), Leon Gilmore hits Bogues in motion, and nothing stands between him and the basket.

That's excellent offensive basketball and exactly how you have to score points when traditional jump shots won't fall. Keller deserves more credit than most people realize for finding ways to get points for his team despite the slump.

Hopefully everyone is fully appreciating Kevon Harris' body of work -

The one player who has been (mostly) immune to the basket-lid disease lately, has been sophomore Kevon Harris, SFA's leading scorer and bona fide contender for Southland Conference Player of the Year. 

His numbers have been dazzling but it's what isn't showing up on the stat sheet that is making his season so special. Harris draws almost all the attention when he's on the floor. Teams cheat on him and beg someone else to make plays.

Sometimes they do and SFA wins easily. Sometimes they can't and Harris has to shoulder the load. He's managing to score anyway, defend above his means, and generally ball out despite being the focal point of every scouting report. 

Great players are great regardless of how defenses play them. With a few exceptions, Harris has been pretty darn close to great all season.

And he's just a sophomore. He's going to leave a mark on SFA record books before it's all said and done. Don't wait until he's gone to appreciate what he means for this program.

What We Learned: Stephen F. Austin 76, Abilene Christian 66

8,163 Views | 10 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by RedRiverLa
Jacks4460
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Nice write..
No-look
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Great article Isaac! I would like to see TJ take more threes at the top of the circle. The shots should start falling.
ACUCattitude
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Good analysis of my Cats. Right on the money.
Our goal is to be the eighth seed. Lightening does strike twice
BigJack85
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HBU has taken advantage of every SLC tournament opportunity. My expectation is that ACU will do the same.
Axe 'Em Jacks - Class of 85'
nacluth
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Wow...another article. That's 10 since Monday! Good stuff.
Ryan
Kinnaird Guitars
fortWorthJack
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Nice article. Shannon's shot is mechanically compromised at the moment. He is releasing the ball on the down or too late. He has a great vertical but the release and timing are killing him. I hope the coaches are taping him so he can work out the kinks.
Gazette1
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Good stuff. I think that the team that wins the conference will have as many as three losses. How's our two high school recruits from Yates doing? What other recruiting news have we?
No-look
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Gazette1 said:

Good stuff. I think that the team that wins the conference will have as many as three losses. How's our two high school recruits from Yates doing? What other recruiting news have we?
I don't think Yates has played this week because of weather. The two recruits are doing great. Hughes is a pure shooter and Serialle has been dominating the teams.
SFA Jack Fanatic
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Gazette1 said:

Good stuff. I think that the team that wins the conference will have as many as three losses. How's our two high school recruits from Yates doing? What other recruiting news have we?
Go to the Recruiting forum and see what was posted about them earlier this week... post-season invites to two elite games.

https://sfasawmill.com/s/228/pair-of-2018-commitments-headline-productive-day-for-sfa-hoops/6/2
RedRiverLa
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Great article. Just got my bp medicines refill, so that should get me through conference.
Lumberjack Battalion
Lumberjacks make great US Army Special Ops Officers - AxeEm!
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