Alright guys we are getting pretty close to the end of the season and where we finish is crucial for the seeding of the Southland Conference Tournament. Let's try to make some predictions on the seeding of the SLC tourney.

Let's be realistic right? Obviously we may be bias because we want the Jacks to get the number one seed, but that isn't realistic to me. My expectation in my ideal scenario finishing as the number 2 seed.

Ideal scenario:

Nichols is looking pretty good and I only see them maybe losing 1 game the rest of the season and that's to SELA. Which would result in a three way tie, if we win out (key word IF, I'm not even sure if we can win out in my opinion. I get nervous when I watch because I don't know what team will show up to the game.). Then SELA will finish as the 1 seed and then it would be the tie breaker between Nichols and SFA for the 2nd seed. I know you're thinking SFA has the head to head, but under SLC rules, head to heads can only be used as a tie breaker if you play a team twice. As you all know, we only played Nichols once. So the next step for the tie breaker is who has more quality wins against ranked opponents in the SLC. SFA losing to ACU/Lamar doesn't help. But I believe we would win the tie breaker if we can beat Sam the last game of the season.

Obviously I want the double bye in the SLC tourney so I'm pushing for the 2 seed.

For those who don't know seeds 1 & 2 get a double bye 3 & 4 get a single bye and there is a total of 8 teams that enter the SLC tournament.

If we don't win out and lose only 1 the rest of the season, then our best bet is the 3 or 4 seed, which isn't terrible because we still get a bye, but playing an extra game can be the difference between SLC tournament champs and getting knocked out the next round.

At his point 26-5 and then two wins in the tournament are all I care about. I think 28-5 with our signature win(s) and two close ones at Mizzou and MS St would get us a 14 seed ,,,, at least maybe a 13. Fingers crossed.

Honestly, we should be able to run the table at the tourney even with the 8 seed. Our team is the best in the league when they show up. That said, I still want the double bye.

So I did some of the maths, & forgive me if I'm wrong because we have incredibly stupid tie breakers in the Southland.

So if we tie with only SELA, supposing we both win out, at the moment we have the tie breaker if ACU wins the tie breaker vs UCA in the standings. Lots of hypotheticals in this scenario, because both have to win & ACU vs UCA part 2 still hasn't happened yet.

If we tie Nichols, the Central Ark game will come back to bite us. Because that's the 2 time head to head tie breaker. Unless of course Nichols loses to UCA but beats SELA. Then it goes to the next highest ranked team, NW State who we both beat twice, & then to head to head, where we come out ahead because we beat Nicholls.

In the event of a 3 way tie with SELA & Nicholls, we lose out on the tie breaker because UCA is our common opponent.

That's as things stand now, barring any other surprises.

I think we can win out with our schedule. Our path to the number 1 seed is Nicholls losing to UCA but beating SELA. Or Nicholls dropping 2 games, which seems unlikely.

Our path to the number 2 seed is more complex.

So that's the potential tie breakers as it stands right now, supposing Nicholls, SFA, & SELA beat who they are supposed to beat, with the SELA/Nicholls game as a tossup.

Confused yet? Because my brain hurts. At this point, let's just win out & hope that things work out in our favor for a double bye.

Also, all tiebreaker scenarios above might be wrong, simply because our tie breaker is far too complex.


After these mental gymnastics, I'm even more in favor of kicking UIW, HBU, & UNO out of the league now so that we can play a 10 team, home & home round robin like the Big 12 does.

Don't discount the final five games for Nicholls. Four on the road with their lone home game coming against a scrappy UNO team. Only one layup, and that is a road trip against Northwestern. McNeese, SLU, and UCA are going to be tough outs on the road.

The tiebreaker scenario isn't what you pointed out, but it's understandable because it's a bizarre system. The long and short of it right now is if there is a tie with three loss teams, SFA loses every tiebreaker. If we're tied with both Louisiana teams, we're the third seed. Tied with just one of the two, we get the lower seed.

It would take multiple losses for all involved to change this scenario. Here's for hoping. Anyway, doesn't a 29-5 look better than 28-5?

Wait, did I screw up the tiebreaker analysis? I wouldn't be surprised. Honestly, if it comes down to it, I wouldn't trust the SLC to calculate it right it's so frustratingly complex.

No I think you got it. I was replying to the OP. I just simplified your statements I think.

nacluth said:

---

No I think you got it. I was replying to the OP. I just simplified your statements I think.

---

Gotcha. It's such an amazingly dumb system that I was certain I probably screwed it up somewhere. We need to just move to head to head tie breakers. It took me an entire sheet of paper to plot out who played who twice & who'd win the tie breaker, & I only did it for the SELA, Nichols, & SFA.

This was me trying to figure out the tie breaker possibilities:

Here's a crazy idea. Why not play fewer St. Edwards', LeTourneau's, and Howard Paynes' and play every conference team, twice?

I know, I know... Got to develop team chemistry and all that....

Because it's not the St. Edwards that would get tossed, it's the LSU's. More Southland play would just hold the conference down.

That would be 24 conference games, which is alot.

The Big 12 plays 18 conference games but since they're a 10 team league that allows them to play everyone home & home.

It also allows them to play everyone every year in football. It'd be a little tougher with an 11 game season vs a 12 like FBS has, but if you played 1 cupcake(Tarleton) & 1 D1, that seems like plenty for the sake of playing everyone in conference.

I'm really not sure what value the Southland saw in adding 4 new teams back in 2013. It's not like we were gonna get a great TV deal or something.

TallTexan said:

---

I'm really not sure what value the Southland saw in adding 4 new teams back in 2013. It's not like we were gonna get a great TV deal or something.

---

Yep. Still scratching my head on that one. If we could only follow the money trails on those additions. Had to be some under-the-table deals going on.

If only we hadn't dominated Oral Roberts like we did.

ORU thought they were something until they came to the SLC and got their butts handed to them. Never heard of a team running back to mommy so quickly. It was pathetic.

In my conference realignment world the SLC would send A&M Corpus and UIW to the WAC. Add ORU and create two divisions of 6. West = Lamar, Sam Houston, SFA, ORU, HBU and Abilene. East = McNeese, Nicholls, SE La, UNO, NWST and UCA.

Sorry been lurking a lot and since this is the only place to have a productive discussion of SLC hoops I thought I'd join.

If SFA runs the table and SLU beats Nicholls then SFA gets the three. and SLU gets the one. The tiebreaker becomes UCA

1. Nicholls/SFA/SELA all three have not played 2 games against each other.
4SHSU (no losses to them)
5. UNO No losses
6. Lamar- NSU 1-0, SLU 1-0 SFA 1-1 (not two games)
7. ACU (no losses
8. Mcneese SLU 1-1 SFA 1-0 NSU 2-0
9 UCA- SLU 2-0 SFA 1-1 NSU 2-0

SFA eliminated

SLU 2-0 vs Nicholls gets the 1
Nicholls the two.

If Nicholls wins out and SFA wins out Nicholls 1 SFA 2 SLU 3
If Nicholls wins out and SFA loses to SHSU

SHSU/ SFA/ SLU

Depends if UCA finishes higher then ACU

if ACU higher

SHSU eliminated

SFA/SLU

SLU 2-0 vs UCA
SFA 1-1 vs UCA

SLU 2 SFA 3 SHSU 4

If UCA higher
Sam 2-0
SLU 2-0
SFA 1-1

SFA eliminated

Sam/ SLU

SLU 2-0 vs ACU
Sam 1-1 vs ACU

SLU 2/ Sam 3/ SFA 4

SFA loses to not SHSU

SLU 2-0 VS UCA
SFA 1-1

SLU 2

SFA 3

IMO Nicholls should probably be the three if its a three way tie if its done logically, but thats the way the cookie crumbles i guess.

nsubroski said:

---

IMO Nicholls should probably be the three if its a three way tie if its done logically, but thats the way the cookie crumbles i guess.

---

It'd be the second year in a row we got screwed by a terrible tie breaker. But we could start with the 8 seed and so long as we win the tourney, I don't care.

ESPN and The Southland website has us at 2 today above SELA. Tiebreakers confuse me...

I have a hard time reading through all the possibilities and understanding so forgive me if the below aren't real possibilities, but I think they are. As a fan would you rather have:

Scenario 1:

Three way tie for 1st
Share of the regular season title
3rd seed in the tournament due to tie breakers
Single bye

Scenario 2:

Second in the regular season
2nd seed in the tournament
double bye

I know the only thing that matters is winning the conference tournament, but I really like to be able to say they are regular season champs and get that towards the commissioner's cup (means something to me, I know it doesn't to a lot of people). Also I think if we continue to play like we have been I don't think a game against the lowest seeded team after the single bye would be much of a hurdle. So I might go Scenario 1.

Not to worry Isaac, Nacluth assured us that we can beat any team, even Villanova. We'll take that 16 over 1 seed & make history if we have too.

Yep. Glad we're on the same wavelength. Wouldn't it suck to be a #1 seed and then our team show up? You know they would be pissed when Bogues started showing up their players.