Bold Prediction

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MasterAxe
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9:13a, 2/5/19
In the words of Rob Thomas from Matchbox 20...

"I'm not crazy, I'm just a little unwell."

I think we can still get a top-3 seed in Katy, maybe TOP-2 with a little luck.

(4-4) Current SLC record: 10 games remaining

Only ONE team left on the schedule has a better record than us in SLC play: ACU

I think it is reasonable to expect a 7-3 or 8-2 close to the season. And by "reasonable" I mean if we play even close to our potential...which, ahh, who the hell knows.

To secure the Top-2 seed, we will HAVE to beat ACU in Abliene and then get a bit of help from New Orleans and SELA losing games perhaps they shouldn't.

The beatdown by Sam was very disheartening, but, according to the records, we have a relatively easy schedule to end the year. 3 of the last 4 are on the road and our last home game is Sam, so the final two weeks of the season are likely going to determine everything.

For sake of comparison, two teams went 15-3 last year in SLC. Other than Sam, that doesn't seem realistic.

3rd and 4th were 14-4 and 12-6...which, with a 8-2 finish, puts us in the running.

Might as well run off a couple wins to get this ship righted. Wednesday is a big day and could be even bigger if things fall our way.

We play at HBU, which I fully expect us to win.

Sam hosts McNeese and will likely win.
New Orleans is at NWST...!!!!! This could be one of those games that really helps us if NWSt can win.
SELA is at Corpus...which benefits us no matter who wins, although a SELA wins is likely more helpful as CC is 4-4 in SLC and SELA is 5-4, but has a loss to us.
ACU is at Lamar...again, one that could really help us if Lamar could scratch out a win.

Look forward to Saturday and...we host Lamar, fully expect us to win.
SELA at UCA...could be very helpful
Nicholls at NO
Sam at ACU...critical game..almost rooting for Sam to win.
UIW at CC

I'm not saying it's gonna happen...BUT, you never know. A week from now, we could find ourselves in the Top-3 in the standings. Just take care of business and hope for a little help.

Let's do this!








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PurpleOut
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9:19a, 2/5/19
Staff
It's a clear Top 2 for me right now. Our game at ACU could be huge, but we have to win to even get to that point. Spots 3-8 will be a battle and probably will go down to the last weekend. There isn't anyone that looks like a clear Top 4 seed right now.

*you have the record wrong for Corpus, they're 4-4 right now. We'll hold the tiebreaker over SLU which is good, but we'll need them to drop a few games as well.



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MasterAxe
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9:34a, 2/5/19
My bad on Corpus, somehow got them mixed up with New Orleans.

You are so right, 3-8 are a cluster.

I just think, somehow, if we get righted, we can scratch out a 2 seed.

Need help, but the schedule seems to indicate it's possible.
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nacluth
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10:03a, 2/5/19
Just a side note: just like last year, since we only play SELA once this season, our victory means essentially nothing in tiebreaker. SLC's format places emphasis on teams you play twice not single victories. So a tie against them will come down to other factors besides head to head.
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nacluth
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10:14a, 2/5/19
Good things: We have beaten three of the top six teams (we're currently in fifth).

Besides our last second blunder against NWST, all our losses have been on the road.

We play 8 of our next 10 games against teams with worse conference records.

We have our set rotations finally.

A long way to go, but there are positives. A single bye should be very achievable even if a double bye is going to take a lot of help.
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TallTexan
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In reply to nacluth • 10:48a, 2/5/19
nacluth said:
Good things: We have beaten three of the top six teams (we're currently in fifth).

Besides our last second blunder against NWST, all our losses have been on the road.

We play 8 of our next 10 games against teams with worse conference records.

We have our set rotations finally.

A long way to go, but there are positives. A single bye should be very achievable even if a double bye is going to take a lot of help.


4 of the top 6 teams, because a few times we beat ourselves.
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ljax1979
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11:53a, 2/5/19
I am ready to take off the rose colored glasses. Throughout November and December I had this feeling of "when we get X player back" or "when our rotation is set" we would become the force that we've become accustomed to. Now, I am ready to accept the fact that due to a litany of circumstances we're just not that good. I think the Baylor win and our four conference wins have given us a delusional thought that come March we'll be right where we've been the past few years. Let's keep in mind that our total margin of victory during those four conference wins were a total of 15 points. Let's also remember that we lost at home and nearly lost on the road to two of the worst teams in Division I (Northwestern State and Incarnate Word). Further, we just got hammered against Sam Houston State. I appreciate the positivity but......why? Still a fan....still going to watch/listen to every game....but I am resigned to the reality of where we are at this point.
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MasterAxe
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In reply to ljax1979 • 12:38p, 2/5/19
ljax1979 said:
I am ready to take off the rose colored glasses. Throughout November and December I had this feeling of "when we get X player back" or "when our rotation is set" we would become the force that we've become accustomed to. Now, I am ready to accept the fact that due to a litany of circumstances we're just not that good. I think the Baylor win and our four conference wins have given us a delusional thought that come March we'll be right where we've been the past few years. Let's keep in mind that our total margin of victory during those four conference wins were a total of 15 points. Let's also remember that we lost at home and nearly lost on the road to two of the worst teams in Division I (Northwestern State and Incarnate Word). Further, we just got hammered against Sam Houston State. I appreciate the positivity but......why? Still a fan....still going to watch/listen to every game....but I am resigned to the reality of where we are at this point.
I am of the belief that the champs are the champs until knocked out.

I am also 100% in agreement with you that the reality is much more grim than the illusions.

However, until we are knocked out, my fandom will remain delusional until proven to be reality...which may happen soon, but hasn't happened yet.
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brlionfan44
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12:52p, 2/5/19
How much concern do SFA fans have about the number of minutes that guys like Harris and Bogues are playing? We went through the same thing last year with Veal especially and that many minutes wears down on a guard through a season. Gotta be able to find those guys rest somewhere.
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TallTexan
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12:56p, 2/5/19
I like your reasoning there MasterAxe.

We may not be in top form this year, and that may not be attainable this season, but if we can get into the conference tourney with a decent seed, we know that Bogues is capable of throwing a lot of haymakers.

He and Kevon won't let that NCAA dream die without a fight.
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nacluth
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In reply to brlionfan44 • 12:57p, 2/5/19
Lots of concern honestly. Just in the last two games has their rest increased from about 2 minutes a game to 4-5 minutes a game. If we can get them to 7-8 minutes going forward it would be a game changer, but honestly we're so thin that it would take a miracle for that. We just hope that 35 minutes a game doesn't wear them out for the next 11-14 games.
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BigJack85
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In reply to ljax1979 • 12:59p, 2/5/19
I agree. Don't see us finishing north of 12-6 in conference
Axe 'Em Jacks - Class of 85'
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MasterAxe
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In reply to brlionfan44 • 1:02p, 2/5/19
brlionfan44 said:
How much concern do SFA fans have about the number of minutes that guys like Harris and Bogues are playing? We went through the same thing last year with Veal especially and that many minutes wears down on a guard through a season. Gotta be able to find those guys rest somewhere.
This has been a realistic concern for many of us since the onset of the season.

As players have become "unavailable," through various reasons, they have been forced to go the distance multiple times. I would love to find them rest, but frankly, our depleted depth has left us just about no option.

Even worse, if both guy are out of the lineup, we are a HORRENDOUS offensive team. We rely on them so much, we have to have one or both on the floor for 38+ minutes a game.
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PurpleOut
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In reply to nacluth • 1:47p, 2/5/19
Staff
nacluth said:
Just a side note: just like last year, since we only play SELA once this season, our victory means essentially nothing in tiebreaker. SLC's format places emphasis on teams you play twice not single victories. So a tie against them will come down to other factors besides head to head.
This is mostly correct. Last year the seedings were correct, but the year before we got screwed on the 3-way tie. A two-way tiebreaker will still go to the team with the head to head results, but only if they've played twice. Which is just stupid, because you have a much greater chance that A) both teams only played once, or B) the two teams split the series. They need to get rid of the rule if the two teams only played once...because that is THE clear definition of a tie breaker. Team A beats Team B....Team A is the obvious choice.
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PurpleOut
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1:53p, 2/5/19
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No-look
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7:22p, 2/5/19
We just need to take care of business one game at a time. ACU will lose some more games. Put together a good win streak and we will be fine.
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Ljacks&Longnecks
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9:10p, 2/6/19
First step of bold prediction in the books!!
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nacluth
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In reply to PurpleOut • 8:26a, 2/7/19
PurpleOut said:
It's a clear Top 2 for me right now. Our game at ACU could be huge, but we have to win to even get to that point. Spots 3-8 will be a battle and probably will go down to the last weekend. There isn't anyone that looks like a clear Top 4 seed right now.



Last night, the top half of the league played the lower half of the league. All the top teams won. Obviously, we squeaked by and UNO won in OT, but no changes at the top.
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PurpleOut
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9:03a, 2/7/19
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Yep, no changes at the top IMO. I think spots 3-8 will be up for grabs until the last weekend.
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nacluth
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12:16p, 2/7/19
Reposting this here as it may be more of a general season thought than something for the HBU thread. We've definitely been dancing on the brink this year. Not dead yet.

Just a perspective recap on how many times we've been down by 10 points or more and come back to win this year.

SWAG - Down by 10 points with 4:15 left in the first half, win by 1.

Marist - 15 behind at the lowest, down 14 with 3:40 left in the game, win by 4.

La Tech* - Behind 13 at the lowest, come from 12 back with 6:35 left in game to force OT. Lose by 3.

Baylor - Behind 10 at the lowest, come from 8 down in final 2:55 to win by 1.

ACU - Down by 10 at the bottom, come back from 8 down in last 8:30 to win by 1.

Houston Baptist - Down 12 with 11:30 left in game, then came the push to win by 2.

5 of our 12 victories have seen us behind by double digits and pull off the victory. The SWAG game is a little bit of an outlier (more than just a D2 school) as we erased that deficit quick and were up by as many as 8 in the second. We allowed the comeback in that game almost letting them snipe us if not saved by a home court call.

Here's a list of the 5 losses by double digits to show that we don't always have the juice to pull it back.

Miami by 38.
San Francisco by 18.
UL-Monroe by 16.
Alabama by 10.
Sam Houston by 22.
Ryan
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