Please convince me why I'm wrong. I want to be wrong.

65tosspowertrap said:

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Please convince me why I'm wrong. I want to be wrong.

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Massey ratings has the most accurate model I've seen.

Had us losing to UofH and ACU before the season started. Prediction is still 9-3. By Massey. I say 8-4 cause Carthel always loses a weird one. Maybe we are through the shoot our selves in the foot stage.

You're always a level-headed voice of reason. Thanks, 85.

I'm already on record saying anything less than 9-3 is a failure based on returners and all the hype of transfers.

ACU at Abilene was no given--if Vidlak doesn't fumble twice, then quite likely better outcome. Not sure how that is a coaches issue as some want to say but so be it.
But now, if this team has anything, they must start a strong winning streak. Can not have 2+ quarters vs anybody else as they had against ACU where they looked to have never played the game. Every game remaining is winnable--but you must go out and earn the wins. Just don't know if the Jacks can overcome their own worst enemy at times which is themselves.

As I also mentioned very late in ACU thread is that I wonder what % Vidlak is health wise compared to pre injury of last season. He just doesn't look as good and passes less crisp than last year. Had one nice 40ish yard pass but almost all others thrown short range.

In order to finish 9-3 the Jacks can lose only one more game. The math doesn't work for me. I think they lose to Nichols and UIW. Then Carthel will find a way to lose one more, either to Lamar or McNeese. I do NOT want this to happen...but don't think Carthel can keep this thing together to go 9-1 the rest of the way. It can happen if

• 1) the OL plays up to its potential,
• 2) a running game emerges,
• 3) the defensive line has stamina to play tough,
• 4) the team grows up some and stops the stupid, soul-killing personal fouls
and
• 5) Carthel shows he can make in-game adjustments to offset the opponent's adjustments.

ACU's coach out-thought Carthel last Saturday. Especially on offense. SFA's defense looked like they didn't know what to do after the 1st quarter. That's poor in-game coaching, and that's been Carthel's trademark, along with lack of team discipline.

I'm rooting like hell for the 'Jacks. I want them to go 10-0 the rest of the way. But that's my heart talking, not my head. My head says 7-5.

Ljacks&Longnecks said:

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I'm already on record saying anything less than 9-3 is a failure based on returners and all the hype of transfers.

ACU at Abilene was no given--if Vidlak doesn't fumble twice, then quite likely better outcome. Not sure how that is a coaches issue as some want to say but so be it.
But now, if this team has anything, they must start a strong winning streak. Can not have 2+ quarters vs anybody else as they had against ACU where they looked to have never played the game. Every game remaining is winnable--but you must go out and earn the wins. Just don't know if the Jacks can overcome their own worst enemy at times which is themselves.

As I also mentioned very late in ACU thread is that I wonder what % Vidlak is health wise compared to pre injury of last season. He just doesn't look as good and passes less crisp than last year. Had one nice 40ish yard pass but almost all others thrown short range.

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Carthel did mention in his press conference today that the coaches meeting opened with about 30 minutes dedicated to the injury report, so I think we probably got a lot more banged up than we think.

It wouldn't surprise me if the starters get pulled very early against Sul Ross if we can get a comfortable lead fast. I don't want to see Vidlak playing in the second half if possible.

Same with Cal Poly. These next 2 games should be comfortable enough wins the starters can take a break early.

I do wish our injury reports were easily viewable for the public. I get why they're not but it would definitely put things into perspective for fans.

I remember some games where the starting lineup announced before the game was inaccurate because even the announcer didn't know who was hurt.

SFA Jack Fanatic said:

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You're always a level-headed voice of reason. Thanks, 85.

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My pleasure!

65tosspowertrap said:

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In order to finish 9-3 the Jacks can lose only one more game. The math doesn't work for me. I think they lose to Nichols and UIW. Then Carthel will find a way to lose one more, either to Lamar or McNeese. I do NOT want this to happen...but don't think Carthel can keep this thing together to go 9-1 the rest of the way. It can happen if

• 1) the OL plays up to its potential,
• 2) a running game emerges,
• 3) the defensive line has stamina to play tough,
• 4) the team grows up some and stops the stupid, soul-killing personal fouls
and
• 5) Carthel shows he can make in-game adjustments to offset the opponent's adjustments.

ACU's coach out-thought Carthel last Saturday. Especially on offense. SFA's defense looked like they didn't know what to do after the 1st quarter. That's poor in-game coaching, and that's been Carthel's trademark, along with lack of team discipline.

I'm rooting like hell for the 'Jacks. I want them to go 10-0 the rest of the way. But that's my heart talking, not my head. My head says 7-5.

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Just telling you what the statistics say. With reflection, my guess is 8-4.