(RV) STEPHEN F. AUSTIN STATE (4-2; 2-1) VS. (RV) SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA (3-4; 2-0)

WHEN: Oct. 19 (SAT.) 4:00 P.M.
WHERE: Hammond, Louisiana (Strawberry Stadium)
TV: ESPN+
Homecoming (People love to have SFA over for homecoming)

SERIES HISTORY

FOOTBALL HISTORY VS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA UNIVERSITY FROM OCTOBER 14, 1950 - NOVEMBER 2, 2019

WINS: 11
LOSSES: 9
TIES: 1

Away Record: 5-6-1
Streak: 2-Loses

SLU has won 4 of the last 6 meetings

L Away: 30-47 (2019)
L Home: 34-58 (2016)
W Away: 28-27 (2018)
W Home: 27-17 (2017)
L Away: 14-56 (2013)
L Home: 27-42 (2012)

The Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin State head deep into the state of Louisiana, along the Bayous in Hammond to take on the Lions of Southeastern Louisiana at Strawberry Stadium.

The Lions won convincingly last Saturday in Houston against the Huskies of HCU 37-7. HCU was riding high fresh off of their upset win over #22 McNeese, but were quickly shut down to a swarming SLU defense that registered 11 TFL's, 7 sacks, 1 FF, 1 INT, 4 PBU, 2 BLK's and 3 QBH's, holding the Huskies to 88 total passing yards.

With a record of 3-4 SLU has played a brutal schedule with games at Tulane, Southern Mississippi, and #13 Tarleton, at home with Eastern Washington, and #1 South Dakota State.

All-Conference QB #17 Eli Sawyer 6-2; 220 leads the Lions with 828 yards off of 100 completions for 5 TD's and 4 INT's, averaging 118 yards per game. SLU likes to run the ball, averaging 176.4 yards per game lead by sophomore RB #22 Antonio Martin Jr. 5-11; 220 who for the season has 830 yards (6.0 AVG) and 7 TD's. As a team the Lions average just under 19 points a game.

SLU football is built on depth and rotation holding FCS opponents to 23 points a game. The team's defensive end positions are strong with veterans like Shemar Pearl, Rowan Briggs, as well as newcomers like Warren Peeples. At defensive tackle, Kaleb Proctor and Peyton Anderson apply good pressure in the backfield and look for senior LB #2 Dante Daniels 5-11; 195 who leads the team in tackles with 52 patrolling the line.

For SFA, Oct. 22, 2022 was the last time the Jacks was able to put a 3-game win streak on the line and they will look to extent it to 4 straight which would be a first since 2021.

The Lumberjacks offense is built on speed and the quick striking ability of their 4-FBS transfers in Blaine Green, Jordan Nabors, Rohan Fluellen, Isaiah Davis, and one all conference returner Kylon Harris. No matter the route, a swing, post, wheel, in and around, they will burn you with an explosive.

The question is can the aggressive SFA defense contain those inconvenient explosives opponents seem to hurl in the second half, that leave Lumberjack fans gasping for air?

This road test will be telling.

Axe'Em

What's our predictions for the week?

It's so hard to gauge this matchup. First glance, our front seven, hold SELA down. Can our DB's avoid the explosive?

I'm feeling the defense shuts them down and the WRs run all over the place.

38-17 SFA

We really are everyone's Super Bowl. We're SLU's homecoming.

BigJack85 said:

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It's so hard to gauge this matchup. First glance, our front seven, hold SELA down. Can our DB's avoid the explosive?

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I agree with 85. This one's hard to pick.

Which SELA team will show up, the one that easily beat a decent HCU team a few days ago or the one that has been blasted by three teams and had a hard time beating A&M Commerce?

Which SFA team will show up, the one that looked like world beaters vs. Northern Colorado and in the first three quarters vs. Lamar, or the one that looked lousy in the fourth quarters vs. McNeese and Lamar?

I think it'll come down to the last quarter again, with the Jacks pulling it out by a touchdown. It won't be easy, especially playing on the road at their homecoming.

SELA schedule so far has been a bit stronger than ours although that means little at this point. SELA likes to run the ball. So far SFA has shut down other teams running games fairly well.
A road conference game is never easy. Just like the Lamar game we should consider these two teams evenly matched. We have the horses on offense. Stop their running game is the key on defense.

I'll try 31-20 SFA

SFA is 4.5 point favorite (OU 55.5)

SFA Rushing Defense (#30 in the nation)

North American University (19 attempts; -5 yards; -0.3; 0TD)
North Texas (33 attempts; 182 yards; 5.5; 1TD)
(RV) McNeese State (43 attempts; 136 yards; 3.2; 2TD)
Northern Colorado (45 attempts; 224 yards; 5.0; 1TD)
Northwestern State (29 attempts; 49 yards; 1.7; 1TD)
#22 Lamar (36 attempts; 162 yards; 4.5; 2TD)

Total: 205 attempts; 748 yards; 3.6; 7TD's (124.7 yards per game)

Against FCS Teams

McNeese State (43 attempts; 136 yards; 3.2; 2TD)
Northern Colorado (45 attempts; 224 yards; 5.0; 1TD)
Northwestern State (29 attempts; 49 yards; 1.7; 1TD)
Lamar (36 attempts; 162 yards; 4.5; 2TD)

Total: 153 attempts; 571 yards; 3.7; 6TD's (143 yards per game)

SFA Defense #46 Total Defense (345 yards per game; 5.2 average per play; 15 TDs)

#3 3rd Down Conversion PCT Defense (.226)
#5 Red Zone Defense (.615)
#20 First Down Defense

Our defense has been very reminiscent of the old Will Muschamp defenses at Texas. Very "Bend don't break" in the sense we allow more yards than we should but still hold teams out of the endzone.

Also worth noting that a lot do our yards against UNC and NWST were during garbage time, and Carthel does like to pull his starters early when the game is seemingly in hand. Against NWST many coaches probably would've kept their starters in the game by the time we pulled ours.

If we didn't let off the gas in those games we probably have a much better defense statistically on the season.

Lamar was our worst defensive game overall all year, and we still only allowed 20 points. Yes Lamar missed opportunities but that happens in every game for every team.

Defense has been looking stout, I have always been a fan of Mutz and his system. I also am very optimistic with the new offensive system & transfers. Of course it has not been perfect, but I really do believe the Jacks are trending in the right direction.

Can't make a prediction at this point, this one scares me for now. SELU's strength of schedule is 15th in the nation in FCS (Massey Power Ratings). Two FBS schools (one of which was Tulane) and a game vs. mighty S. Dakota State. Do we have the linebackers to help stifle their running attack? What factor will time of possession play in the game?

Somebody out there give me hand with this? My personal power rating on this forum has to be near the bottom. My name and the words "football expert" don't usually collide in the same sentence.

You're pointing out valid points. SELA usually has a good squad so this will, without a doubt, be a big challenge for the Jacks. I do have faith in our backers & our scheme. Defense MUST show up though if we want to even think about winning.

Believe me 65toss, your thoughts and guesses are as good as the rest of us. All going to come down to who plays the best football that day and/or makes the most of their breaks and game plan.
Should expect it to be close as the Lamar game turned out.

I like how Alaska is split up because of the curvature of the earth. Football spoiling flat earther's party.

Also, if we come out of Hammond with a win, I'll probably consider it in the top 5 of Carthel's wins.

SFASawmillGuy said:

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SLU is a weird team to grade. They have the potential to be the 2nd toughest team we will play all year outside of UIW, they have possibly the best RB in the conference, but they've been incredibly inconsistent too.

Aside from their FBS losses, they got absolutely destroyed by SDSU. Yes they're the best team in the FCS but SLU put up absolutely zero fight.

They took Tarleton to the wire, good showing, Tarleton is really good this year. But then they struggled against a bad EWU team and had a hard time putting away Commerce who, despite beating NWST this week, might still be the worst team in the SLC.

Then they turned around and blew out HCU, who blew out McNeese, who beat us(although we beat ourselves that game).

If we get the SLU team that played Tarleton, we will have our hands full and it will come down to the wire. If we get the SLU team who played Commerce, EWU, and SDSU, we should win soundly.

Offensively they're very one dimensional. They don't have a good passing game and we happen to be really good against the run.

Defensively they're strong, but not stronger than Lamar even on their best day.

I think this game is absolutely winnable no matter what, but we need to enter the game with an all out mindset. Can't let up on or overlook this team.

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Good take. This game is winnable.

Back in the boot.

SFA 🆚 SLU
⏰ : 4:00 PM
📍 : Strawberry Stadium
🎥 : ESPN+
📻 : Q107#AxeEm x #EastTexasTough pic.twitter.com/rt6JHxaNHJ

— Lumberjack Football (@SFA_Football) October 16, 2024

SFASawmillGuy said:

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SLU is a weird team to grade. They have the potential to be the 2nd toughest team we will play all year outside of UIW, they have possibly the best RB in the conference, but they've been incredibly inconsistent too.

Aside from their FBS losses, they got absolutely destroyed by SDSU. Yes they're the best team in the FCS but SLU put up absolutely zero fight.

They took Tarleton to the wire, good showing, Tarleton is really good this year. But then they struggled against a bad EWU team and had a hard time putting away Commerce who, despite beating NWST this week, might still be the worst team in the SLC.

Then they turned around and blew out HCU, who blew out McNeese, who beat us(although we beat ourselves that game).

If we get the SLU team that played Tarleton, we will have our hands full and it will come down to the wire. If we get the SLU team who played Commerce, EWU, and SDSU, we should win soundly.

Offensively they're very one dimensional. They don't have a good passing game and we happen to be really good against the run.

Defensively they're strong, but not stronger than Lamar even on their best day.

I think this game is absolutely winnable no matter what, but we need to enter the game with an all out mindset. Can't let up on or overlook this team.

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Thanks for this, Sawmill Guy. Great insight. I'm feeling much better about the game.

The threads for game seven.#AxeEm x #EastTexasTough pic.twitter.com/A46PDw4z9U

— Lumberjack Football (@SFA_Football) October 18, 2024

Into the Lions Den.

SFA 🆚 SLU
⏰ : 4:00 PM
📍 : Strawberry Stadium
🎥 : https://t.co/YleDIsSEH8
📻 : https://t.co/OlafoVcnEW
📊 : https://t.co/TjmvEBpVr2
📰 : https://t.co/1cnU0Fqocg#AxeEm x #EastTexasTough pic.twitter.com/rSx14rJO1L

— Lumberjack Football (@SFA_Football) October 19, 2024

SFAXE93 said:

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The threads for game seven.#AxeEm x #EastTexasTough pic.twitter.com/A46PDw4z9U

— Lumberjack Football (@SFA_Football) October 18, 2024

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SCHOOL COLORS! Now we're talking!

I tell my math students "risk being wrong." So I need to practice what I preach.

Here's what I think will happen today:

Chris Campos will be a pivotal part of today's effort, kicking two field goals (I am putting faith in Carthel to make smart decisions and not be reckless on 4th down). Vidlak and Jones won't set the world on fire but will be consistent and steady, doing enough to get SFA two touchdowns.

Defense will be put to the test, bending but not breaking and keeping SELU run game from dominating time of possession. SFA will give up the rushing yards, but make plays when the moment calls for it.

The X factor is Carthel's decision-making in pressure situations. Like I said, I am taking a leap of faith and predicting he will trust his special teams to get SFA needed points. You can be aggressive and smart at the same time. Let's see if Carthel will grasp that...and let his players win the game for him.

This is THE crossroads game of the season for SFA. And they take the right road.

Lumberjacks 20, Lions 14.

This and 50 cents won't get you a cup of lukewarm coffee...

65TPT

great first drive, lots of variety

Looks good early.

Fast start, just like last week. Hope we can sustain this the whole game.

Pass defense did not look good on that drive.

#22 is a load. Hard to bring down.

For a run oriented offense they are throwing the ball a lot and having success.

SELU may have decided to take advantage of weak SFA secondary and then run it when defense loosens up

14-10 SLU at half. An almost 13 minute drive by SLU where they scored after two stops on the one is the main difference.