Prediction and Preview: SFA's Tuesday bout with Mizzou

The Game: SFA Men's Basketball at Missouri
The Time: Tuesday, December 19th, 8:00 p.m. (CT)
The Broadcast: ESPNU, WatchESPN App (television), Lumberjacks Sports Network (radio)

After securing their most prominent win of the 2017-18 season, Stephen F. Austin headed straight from Baton Rouge, the stage of their 83-82 win at LSU, to Columbia, where the Tigers of Missouri await.

The Lumberjacks will return to action for the 8:00 (CT) tip on Tuesday in Mizzou Arena. With little question, it will represent SFA's best opponent of the season. As big as road wins over Louisiana Tech and the aforementioned LSU have been, those efforts likely don't beat these Tigers. It might take something a little extra to win a contest with this young 9-2 team full of momentum and with quality wins over Iowa State and Central Florida.

Backing away from a big challenge has not been the modus operandi of SFA this year. Here's what they're up against on Tuesday night:

Three storylines to follow...

Kevon Harris' status, ability to impact the game after hard fall on Saturday remains promising but uncertain. The Lumberjacks' leading scorer took one to the face, literally, on Saturday as an LSU player managed to land a finger in Harris' eye during a rebound attempt in the first half. All signs point to Kevon playing on Tuesday:

That's huge, but until Harris suits up and contributes meaningfully, it should still be an area of concern for SFA fans with so much uncertainty surrounding the circumstances of his injury. Precautionary measures are taken all the time, but it is worth noting that Harris never returned to the floor in Baton Rouge, despite watching the final minutes from the bench. As shorthanded as the Lumberjacks were down the stretch, with TJ Holyfield and Leon Gilmore both fouling out, one would expect Harris to have played if able.

Mizzou is continuing to adjust in the post-Michael Porter era. The freshman star was probably the most exciting player in the history of Missouri basketball and he may enter the NBA Draft next year with just two points in his NCAA career after hurting his hip during warmups in the Tigers' season opener.

It was a massive blow to the entire Mizzou program who legitimately expected to be among the better teams in the SEC this season, one year after a putrid 2-16 record in conference play. Under first year head coach Cuonzo Martin (formerly of Cal), the Tigers have managed to field a significantly improved team even without their best player.

Without Michael Porter, Mizzou is still the best team SFA has faced all season. With him? It could have been a long night.

The Tigers are still settling their point guard rotation twelve games into the year. This could bode well for SFA after having to face a couple great ones in games against LSU and Louisiana Tech. Any time there is fluidity in lineups where chemistry might be compromised, that's an advantage for the Keller-style of trapping defense. Freshman Blake Harris has been much improved in the last few outings and might be the answer going forward, but his last time battling a good pressure defense was a disaster (more on this later).

Terrence Phillips, who has been a nice piece off the bench in that role, appeared to hurt his foot this past weekend and his status is unknown.

This is in no way a knock on Mizzou's talented backcourt - only that the continued roster finessing (eight players have at least one start this season) could help SFA disrupt; after all, it's what they do best.

Three Missouri Tigers to know...

The number three hardly cuts it because the Tigers get contributions from so many different places. Where depth has been undeniably an advantage for SFA in every game so far this year, that may not be so much the case on Tuesday.

Jontay Porter. Michael might not be suiting up on Tuesday but his brother Jontay will, and the 6-11, 240 pound power forward can play too. Jontay, a freshman and a year his brother's junior, has come off the bench this season as a prolific shot-blocker and defensive master at the rim. He's also averaging 8.5 points on a deep scoring team and seven rebounds. SFA likes to get into the paint on offense but Porter might have something to say about that on Tuesday.

Jordan Barnett. He's a small forward, but Barnett can move the ball a lot like a guard. He's an excellent jump-shooter (seeing a trend yet?) but doesn't lack a presence in the paint either. A senior and co-leading scorer, Barnett is probably the Tigers' best all-around player at this stage of the season. He also leads his fellow starters in rebounding.

Kassius Robertson. Along with Barnett, he leads the team in scoring (both are averaging exactly 13.7) but Robertson does it a little differently. He's a slender guard and one of the better pull-up shooters in the country, but a good enough driver to frequent the free-throw line too. A graduate transfer from Canisius College in the MAAC, Robertson is a very cerebral player who has accounted for 29 assists and has spent some time at point guard.

The Lumberjacks win if...

They force more than 20 turnovers and defend the three-point line. The first part might be easier than the second. The last time Mizzou faced a defense similar to what the Lumberjacks field, West Virginia managed to "Press Virginia" straight to victory. Harris was unsettled and chaotic, playing just six minutes before he was pulled from the game after committing three turnovers and a foul. For the game, the Mountaineers forced exactly 20 turnovers and overcame their own shooting woes to pick up a key 83-79 victory.

Why was it so close? Well...

The Tigers win if...

They continue to do what they've done all year: dominate the glass and make it rain three-pointers. West Virginia could never pull away in their contest because the extra possessions picked up on defense were mostly negated by being outrebounded 47-31 for the game. Missouri has been doing that all year to other teams, averaging a plus 10 margin on the glass. Their other trademark? Record-setting three-point shooting - something the Lumberjacks have been highly susceptible to all season. The Tigers are shooting nearly 40% from behind the arc as a team. It isn't just high percentage in a small sample size either. The 107 made three-pointers are the most in their program's history through 11 games in over a decade.

Fast Break Points...

- Both teams are receiving votes in the USA Today Coaches Poll. For SFA, a win in Columbia would give the Lumberjacks a path to cracking the Top 25 a ways down the road. The Lumberjacks will be favored in every contest, following this one, between now and the end of the regular season, assuming nothing goes awry.

- Missouri certainly won't be risking a letdown on Tuesday following an emotional game like LSU seemed to experience. It has been almost three weeks since Missouri played in a game that they didn't win by double digits.

- The Tigers' next opponent after SFA happens to be the Lumberjacks' last head coach, Brad Underwood, and his current team at Illinois.

- SFA has been scoring with a lot more ease of late, but they haven't played many defenses quite like Missouri. Tigers' opponents are shooting just 38% from the floor for the season.

The Verdict...

Although I questioned SFA's status as an underdog at LSU, it would be hard to deny it here. Missouri is favored to win and it's never easy to find victory in these kinds of games on the road. SFA is certainly capable of it, but they'll need to play much cleaner than they did on Saturday.

A lot is also going to depend on whether or not Missouri can keep up the blazing hot shooting. If they come out firing like they have at times, it could be a rough night for the purple and white. If SFA can disrupt and create extra possessions, they absolutely are capable of this win - far more capable than a lot of Missouri fans probably realize.

In the end, after the roller-coaster of Saturday, I wouldn't be surprised to see SFA come out a little bit flat. Yes, it could go either way, but if I have to pick, I'll go with the home team.

Missouri: 84
Stephen F. Austin: 72