Our way-too-early SLC Commissioner's Cup projections for 2017

There are a number of factors by which the success of Stephen F. Austin's athletics department, led by athletic director Robert Hill, can be calculated. Conference championships in a variety of sports, consistent contention in others.

Of course, the Southland Conference has a mechanism for measuring department excellence - an all-sport championship of sorts - that is awarded to one member school at the end of each sports year. The 2017 victor of the SLC Commissioner's Cup will be announced this coming May; and it's a race coming down to the wire.

Part of what has made SFA's athletics department somewhat unique under Hill's leadership has been the invariable commitment to winning in every sponsored sport - not just the popular fan draws. That means the whole report, from football to women's bowling, matters; a philosophy less common than one might believe. Frankly, in a number of the less spectator-type sports throughout the country, so long as the program is run clean and athletes are graduating, the wins and losses become somewhat negligible.

Not to Hill or SFA. Academics matter and so does program integrity. But wins matter too, and for obvious reasons, the commissioner's cup model has rewarded that commitment to championship culture throughout the entire department.

This isn't to say that SFA always competes in every sport; there are obviously outliers each season and programs that lag behind. But consistency across the board has garnished the Lumberjacks sole possession of each of the last two SLC commissioner's cups.

And they might be in position for at least one more in a couple months:

We took things a step further, though. What would these standings look like if every team finished exactly where they currently sit in all remaining sports?

Clearly, it's far too early to draw standings conclusions in sports only just starting their league season; but what the heck? Let's see how this shakes out.

Golf and outdoor track are ranked solely by the results of a single event. Since we cannot predict those outcomes, we instead used the results of indoor track to predict the latter and last year's result to predict the former. Coupled with the way-too-early baseball and tennis standings, this is what the projected men's all-sport standings look like:

1. Sam Houston State - 79.5
2. McNeese - 71.5
3. Lamar - 67.0
4. Stephen F. Austin - 64.0
5. Southeastern La - 61.0
6. UIW - 60.5
7. Abilene Christian - 49.0
8. Central Arkansas - 44.0
9(t). A&M-Corpus Christi - 41.0
9(t). New Orleans - 41.0
11. Houston Baptist - 40.0
12. Nicholls - 36.5
13. Northwestern State - 34.0

SFA is obviously hurt in a big way by the 0-3 start in baseball, a number that we would expect to shift significantly up by the end of the actual season. This would be the projected women's standings, as of today, using the same criteria as above (obviously replacing baseball with softball):

1. Stephen F. Austin - 88.0
2. Lamar - 87.0
3. Central Arkansas - 78.0
4(t). Abilene Christian 76.5
4(t). Sam Houston State 76.5
6. McNeese - 69.0
7. A&M-Corpus Christi - 65.0
8. Northwestern State - 59.0
9. UIW - 51.5
10. Houston Baptist - 48.5
11. Southeastern LA - 41.0
12. Nicholls 32.0
13. New Orleans 29.0

And so the grand finale. As of today, in our way-too-early projections, here are the 2017 commissioner's cup standings. Use this with a mighty grain of salt since clearly the standings haven't taken form yet in most spring sports - but we think this is still a fun way to gauge how teams need to over/under perform (based on where they are now) to achieve the desired outcome:

1. Sam Houston State - 156.0
2. Lamar - 154.0
3. Stephen F. Austin 152.0
4. McNeese 140.5
5. Abilene Christian - 125.5
6. Central Arkansas - 122.0
7. UIW - 112.0
8. A&M-Corpus Christi - 106.0
9. Southeastern LA - 102.0
10. Northwestern State - 93.0
11. Houston Baptist - 88.5
12. New Orleans 70.0
13. Nicholls 68.5

Notice the dead heat between the top three - a total of four standings positions in any sport separating third from first.

Although this model is clearly flawed in the art of making predictions, it just goes to show how close the battle stands as the 2017 college sports season enters the home stretch. Fortunately, for the Lumberjacks, there is more than enough room to make a winning move with a little success in the diamond sports.

As baseball and softball look to establish themselves in the SLC standings, keep the above projections in mind. They might just be playing for more than one title at SFA.