Letters from Katy: Lamar looms for SFA, other opening day thoughts

My dearest reader,

I hope this message finds you well. I am deep inside neutral territory - terrifying, I know.

Texas ruled the day as Sam Houston State and Lamar knocked Southeastern Louisiana and Central Arkansas from the NCAA Tournament mix. In both cases, the higher seeds prevailed. Entering day number two (number one on the women's side), Sam Houston State will do battle with Houston Baptist while Stephen F. Austin makes their tournament debut against Lamar.

A few opening day notes to prepare for the wild day ahead:

Southeastern did to Lamar exactly what SFA will do (again) -

At the end of the day, SELA just doesn't have a lot of exceptional talent outside of Marlain Veal. The Lions are a one-sided defensive team, which is better than being a one-sided offensive team (more on that later), but their strategy against Lamar was the right one.

It was actually more or less what SFA did to the Cardinals during their home victory in Nacogdoches a few weeks back: deny Colton Weisbrod however necessary. In Nacogdoches, Weisbord fouled out of the game with two points in his worst showing as a collegiate player.

Weisbrod is one of the more interesting stories in the Southland Conference. The 6-5 forward from the Beaumont area actually played his freshman year at fellow league member New Orleans. He moved back home to take care of his girlfriend who was expecting their child, sat a year in the junior college ranks, and emerged this year as the best player on a young Lamar team.

Against Southeastern in early January, Weisbrod scored 34 to go along with eight rebounds. The Lions had no intention of letting him do that twice. So Wednesday, like SFA did before them, Jay Ladner's team did everything in their power to shut him down.

It mostly worked. Weisbrod scored 8 points on 2-4 shooting, and Lamar turned the ball over frequently in the first half while trying to force it inside to him:

SELA might not be the most talented group, but they play tenacious defense and that's enough to keep them around on most nights. Unfortunately, Lamar is deeper than just one player.

Stephen F. Austin bested the Cardinals by locking down Weisbrod with a combination of Leon Gilmore and Ty Charles. They also got big defensive contributions from their guards. Kyle Keller called Lamar the leagues "most complete team" after that victory, because he knew that beating them would require more than removing a single player from the equation. This is not a Texas A&M-Corpus Christi type team has to generate all of its offense through the hands of a couple men.

Southeastern did what it had to do, and that still wasn't enough. SFA will do the same, and hope for enough defensive contribution elsewhere to do (once again) what the Lions could not.

Sam Houston State's opening victory was a microcosm of their frustrating season -

The #5 seeded Bearkats rolled all over #8 Central Arkansas in the opening frame, racking up 49 points. They led by 18 at various parts of the first half and walked into the locker room up by 14.

The Sam Houston State roster is not constructed of super scorers or particularly proficient shooters. They're generally an excellent defensive team and they win by spreading the wealth. You just knew that their eight three-pointers before the half would turn out to be mostly anomaly. After all, this is the same team that shot 3-23 from behind the arc in their regular season finale at Stephen F. Austin.

Sure enough, Central Arkansas made a charge. If the Bears do one thing well, it's score points. The Kats insisted on shooting the low percentage looks they were knocking down in the first half and it nearly cost them what would have been a painful opening loss.

Much like the latter part of the season (following a period that looked sure to land them in a double-bye after rattling off eight-straight victories), the second half did not treat the Bearkats scoring abilities well.

Sam Houston State's late season collapse has been littered with bad shooting, but not because these players are incapable of putting up points. For some reason, if they make a few, they resort to undisciplined offensive basketball. You would expect more from a team with as much veteran presence as the Bearkats, but I would be shocked if they manage to get by Houston Baptist on Thursday.

Central Arkansas could have five Jordan Howards and not win consistently with their style of basketball. SFA could with zero -

Some say Russ Pennell is the best offensive-minded coach in the Southland Conference. I wouldn't disagree. He has recruited a special core of fast talent that can score quickly and in bunches. They did some pretty impressive things in the second half on Wednesday. With Sam Houston State mostly locking them down in the first half and jump shots not landing, UCA completely spread out the floor. They opened up the paint and they charged at it. Over and over again.

Have a look:

On the other side, as soon as Tanner Schmit (UCA's lone starter with size) fouled out, they had no chance to stop the Kats from putting the game away. The Bears guards aren't bad defensive players, per se. They're just really, really small.

About a year ago, I had an opportunity to visit at length with former SFA head coach Danny Kaspar, who currently leads the program at Texas State. I asked him about his defensive philosophy - the style fans in Nacogdoches lovingly (and often mockingly) referred to as Danny-ball. It was boring, methodical basketball. Sometimes every game felt like a race to 50. I asked him what made him favor that product over the more exciting Mike McConathy press-and-gun play. "We couldn't rely on scoring," he replied. "If you rely on offense, there are going to be nights where it's just not there for you. But defense - that's not a skill. That's a team effort."

Even Jordan Howard, who finished 0-4 from behind the arc and 4-12 overall during Wednesday's loss to Sam Houston State, cannot score consistently enough to make Central Arkansas a contender. The Bears choose to keep their best players on the floor - and that's admirable - but when four of your five best players are guards, you cannot expect to match size defensively.

Yes, UCA scores points. On Wednesday, that was almost enough. It will always be almost enough. Until UCA becomes a complete team, capable of competence on the more reliable defensive side of the ball, no core of superstar offensive talent will make them a major player in the Southland Conference.

How does this relate to SFA? Well, Keller-ball (at least this season) is pretty darn close to what that one mustached fellow is producing in San Marcos now. It's flawed, certainly. SFA doesn't have a dominant scorer, and when they can't buy a bucket there really is nobody who they can consistently turn to.

But that's a lot better than the alternative. At least being a one-sided basketball team that can get stops consistently has a chance. Especially in a tournament atmosphere, you always pick the SFA style over the UCA.

Fast break points -

- Sam Houston State has no chance against Houston Baptist. The Huskies already own the Bearkats in their heads. I'll be shocked if they keep it within 10.

- Stephen F. Austin has a better chance against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi than Lamar. Good defenses can shut down the Islanders by shutting down just two players. Lamar is deep. Deep is SFA's kryptonite.

- There could realistically be zero double-bye teams in the championship game. Houston Baptist should be favored over New Orleans (already assuming they get by Sam). SFA, if they survive Lamar, well, see above.

- SFA-Lamar could be the best attended game of the tournament. I know, that might be stretch, especially if SFA lands in the championship game. But the Cardinals actually have a solid group of supporters in Katy. Shame one of those fan bases has to go home tomorrow.