Losing to bad teams helps SFA's shot at the top seed. Seriously.

A week ago today, I declared the conference race over if Stephen F. Austin were to drop the heavy-weight battle against the New Orleans Privateers.

They did. And I was wrong.

Two days later, in unexpected fashion and with a Lumberjack-sized hangover, UNO fell in a heart breaker to Northwestern State. Coupled with SFA's dramatic come-from-behind affair in Conway, Arkansas, the Lumberjacks are suddenly just a game out of first (once again) with two to play.

Should SFA manage to draw even with the Privateers this week (SFA plays Northwestern State and Sam Houston State at home, UNO plays Southeastern Louisiana at home and Nicholls on the road), the Southland Conference would crown co-champions.

But there can only be one #1 seed in the Southland Conference Tournament in Katy next week. There can be only one guaranteed NIT berth should that top seed fall short of the NCAA Tournament (and in a one-bid league like the SLC, that means anything but winning the whole Katy tournament).

So during an already dramatic week, with rivalry games on deck and all but one eligible team (McNeese) still mathematically alive for a postseason berth, let the tie-breaking madness begin.

Beware. Your head is about to hurt. Here's the way this works, per the Southland Conference:

(a) If two (2) teams tie for a position, and one (1) team holds a head-to-head win-loss advantage after two games against one another, that team receives the higher seed.

(b) If two (2) teams tie for a position, and if the teams split their regular season games, or if they only played one game against each other, then the tied teams’ won-loss results against the highest positioned team(s) they both played twice shall be compared. This shall be continued through the final standings until one (1) team gains the advantage, thus the higher seed.

(c) In the event a tie cannot be broken in this manner, the tied team that holds a won-loss advantage against the other tied team, regardless of the number of games played, shall receive the higher seed.

(d) In the event a tie cannot be broken in this manner, the tied team that holds a won-loss advantage against the highest-positioned team(s), regardless of the number of times played, shall receive the higher seed. This shall be continued through the final standings until one (1) team gains the advantage, thus the higher seed. [5/13]

So let's break this down.

Let's start with (A). Stephen F. Austin and the University of New Orleans played each other twice in the regular season. On January 28th, SFA won in Nacogdoches by a score of 61-71. On February 25th, UNO exacted revenge by beating SFA in New Orleans, 65-82. Because the series was split 1-1, this tie breaking procedure does not apply.

So, we go to (B). For this to apply, we have to find the highest seeded team that both SFA and UNO played twice. That team is - actually, it doesn't exist. All the way, top to bottom, SFA and UNO never competed against the same team more than once. In fact, aside from UNO and Northwestern State, SFA didn't play any Louisiana school twice. Ditto for UNO in Texas, aside from SFA and Houston Baptist. So, we move on...

Clearly (C) cannot apply, because it assumes the reason the tie hasn't already been broken is because there were an odd number of games (1) played between the two opponents in the head-to-head. Since SFA and UNO played twice and split the series 1-1, this doesn't apply.

So finally, at the bottom of the tie breaking procedures, we reach (D). In this scenario, we do the same thing as we did with (B), but the part about having to play twice is now absent. Now it's all about whose losses were to worse teams - yes, losing to bad teams instead of good teams becomes an advantage.

You don't have to work far down the standings to find the discrepancy. Both teams own a perfect record against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (the team currently tied with SFA in second), but not in the eyes of the SLC rule book.

UNO won a single contest, SFA won twice. That, right there, breaks the tie. But even if it didn't, we'd have the same result with Sam Houston State, where SFA's 1-1 record (we assume they'd win on Saturday to be tied) would beat UNO's 0-1 record. Had SFA's losses come to the likes of the Islanders instead of lowly teams like McNeese, we may not be so fortunate.

But hold up - how likely is it that Texas A&M-Corpus Christi drops a game in the final week after winning nine-straight? Well, it's possible. They play Houston Baptist tomorrow, winners of seven-straight of their own. But nearly as conceivable as SFA coming back to force a tie with UNO, is Texas A&M-Corpus Christi also winning out to force a three-way tie atop the league standings.

Let's go back to the rulebook:

(a) If three (3) or more teams tie for a position, and the tied teams all played two games against one another, the combined record of each of the tied teams against the other teams involved in the tie shall be compared until a seeding advantage is
gained.

(b) If three (3) or more teams tie for a position, and if the teams combined to split their regular season games against one another, or if they played an uneven number of games against one another, then the tied teams’ won-loss results against the next highest-positioned team(s) they all played twice shall be compared. This shall be continued through the final standings until one (1) team gains the advantage, thus the higher seed.

(c) If three (3) or more teams remain tied for a position, regardless of the number of games played against the other tied teams, any won-loss advantage in the combined pool of tied teams shall be used as a seeding tie-breaker. This shall continue through the order of final standings if necessary.

(d) In the event a tie cannot be broken in this manner, the tied team that holds a won-loss advantage against the highest-positioned team, regardless of the number of times played, shall receive the seeding advantage. This shall be continued through the final standings until one (1) team gains the advantage, thus the higher
seed. [5/13]

(e) In the event a three-way or more tie-breaker is reduced to two remaining tied teams, the tiebreaker reverts to the two-way system described in 3.03.04.01.01. [5/13]

As we established earlier, SFA played the Islanders twice and UNO played them once. For that reason, (A) cannot apply.

We already established in the above scenarios that SFA and UNO did not play any of the same teams twice. The Islanders have a remaining game against Incarnate Word (after beating them earlier), who SFA played twice, but it's irrelevant, and (B) does not apply either.

So now we hit (C). Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is a combined 0-3 against the others they share the throne with. New Orleans, meanwhile, is 2-1. SFA, being 3-1, would win this tie breaker too.

(D) and (E) do not apply, since any subsequent rule is only used in the event that a tie is not already broken. For what it's worth, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi would win the (D) scenario with their two wins against Houston Baptist (this assumes they win on Wednesday - a tie would be unlikely if they didn't), while SFA and UNO would be seeded after (having only played HBU once). At that point, (E) would kick in and essentially duplicate the original two-way tie breaker between the Lumberjacks and Privateers, giving SFA the #2 and UNO the #3.
This paragraph is purely hypothetical, though, since SFA already wins the three-way tie with (C).

If you're confused by now, don't worry - you aren't alone. That is about as deep in the tie breaking rule book as you get. The only further step is an unbreakable tie, where final RPI would make the call (#1 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, #2 New Orleans, #3 Stephen F. Austin). Again, irrelevant, since the tie is already broken.

The good news for SFA fans, is in every scenario, at least the ones that involve a tie at the end of the season for the Southland Conference championship, the Lumberjacks are favored. That means nothing if New Orleans wins out or if SFA fails to.

But it's worth keeping an eye on as the craziest week in an already crazy Southland Conference season finally shakes out.