WEEK 10: HCU

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SFAXE93
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9:50a, 10/26/26

#2 Stephen F. Austin State (8-0; 5-0) vs. HCU (4-4; 3-2)

WHEN: October 31, 2026 (Sat.) 2:00 P.M.
WHERE: Nacogdoches, Texas (Homer Bryce Stadium)
TV: ESPN+

HCU Schedule…

W@#19 Southeastern Louisiana 34-28
L @Rice 3-31
W Arkansas Baptist 88-0
L @UIW 23-30 (OT)
L @North Texas 14-63
W Nicholls 16-2
W East Texas A&M 43-24
L @#15 Lamar 10-35

FOOTBALL HISTORY VS HOUSTON CHRISTIAN FROM OCTOBER 18, 2014 - NOVEMBER 8, 2025

SFA leads the all-time series 6-1-0 having won 4 straight, outscoring the Huskies 105-9 in the last two meetings.

The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (8-0, 5-0 Southland) enter this Week 9 matchup playing their best football in program history. Fresh off a commanding 45-24 victory over #23 Southeastern Louisiana, the Lumberjacks look to tighten their grip on the Southland Conference. SFA's balanced attack, directed by quarterback Gavin Rutherford and powered by explosive running back Jaylen Jenkins (159 rushing yards last week), presents a massive challenge for any opposing unit.

The Houston Christian Huskies (4-4, 3-2 Southland) travel to Nacogdoches aiming to bounce back after their two-game winning streak was snapped in a 35-10 road loss to #15 Lamar. Despite the recent setback, HCU is a vastly improved, gritty team that has proven it can compete anywhere. Senior quarterback Cutter Stewart anchors the offense, while a dangerous defense features standout safety Javon Bejaranowho has astonishingly returned an interception for a touchdown in three consecutive games.

HCU Key Players to Watch
  • QB Cutter Stewart (#6): The senior leader has completed 54% of his passes for 1,086 yards, 10 touchdowns, and just 3 interceptions. He is also a dangerous dual-threat, sitting second on the team with 265 rushing yards and 2 scores.
  • LB Jayven Anderson (#7): A disruptive defensive force who leads the team with 61 tackles and 10.0 tackles for loss (TFL), alongside 3.5 sacks.
  • LB Mike Sylvalie (#0): A relentless pass rusher racking up a team-high 5.5 sacks and 6.5 TFL.
  • S Javon Bejarano (#8): A certified ball-hawk who is currently on a historic streak of three straight games with a pick-six.
SFA holds a definitive 6-1-0 advantage in the historical series and outscored HCU 105-9 over their last two encounters. However, this is not the HCU team of old. The Huskies are entirely unintimidated and possess the defensive playmakers capable of forcing turnovers. For HCU to pull off the ultimate upset, they will need to solve

SFA's stingy defense, limit mistakes from Stewart, and hope Bejarano's turnover magic continues. SFA will lean on their flawless home execution and the powerful running of Jenkins to wear down the Huskies' defense and maintain their perfect season.

Axe'Em !
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SFAXE93
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10:49a, 10/26/26
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3:03p, 10/26/26
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4:19p, 10/26/26
Here comes UIW, and ACU is back in the Top 25, SFA's resume is growing stronger each week.

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SFASawmillGuy
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4:21p, 10/26/26
HCU is a team we desperately cannot look past.

On paper and on tape, we should run through them and win by as many points as we want to.

But they're very scrappy and opportunistic and if we give them a chance where they think they can win it, this game is gonna be a lot closer and dangerous than it needs to be.

They have offensive and defensive lines for HCU are very good, which has led them to having a good running game with their QB, but their offense is pretty one dimensional.

Defensively they're opportunistic. They force mistakes and take advantage of them, but aren't overly athletic.

Like I said, limit mistakes, we win by a lot. If we give them chances, they'll take them.
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SFAXE93
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5:44p, 10/26/26
But we are 1-0!

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SFA Jack Fanatic
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6:54p, 10/26/26
Coach Carthel has been locked in as our HC through at least 2031 with a big fat contract extension!!! Woo Hoo!

Let's go celebrate with a big ol' sweet tea from HTeaO.
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SFAXE93
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7:01p, 10/26/26
#108

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SFAXE93
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7:03p, 10/26/26
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SFAXE93
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7:04p, 10/26/26
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SFA Jack Fanatic
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In reply to SFAXE93 • 7:11p, 10/26/26
Week 2 Team of the Week.
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SFAXE93
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7:12p, 10/26/26
UIW would be a dangerous team in the playoffs if they get in...

W 76-14 Oklahoma Panhandle
L 28-38 @#24 Northern Arizona
W 30-23 HCU (OT)
L 10-63 @Texas State
L 26-28 @#5 SFA
L 35-38 @#10 Lamar
W 41-16 UTRGV
W 38-6 McNeese State

Chance to run the table and go 8-4

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SFA Jack Fanatic
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In reply to SFAXE93 • 7:17p, 10/26/26
SFAXE93 said:
UIW would be a dangerous team in the playoffs if they get in...



I agree. They're the second best team in the SLC right now. Glad we played them early on.
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TheRevSFA
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9:06p, 10/26/26
They won't make the playoffs at 8-4. They don't have quality wins, just quality losses
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Ljacks&Longnecks
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In reply to SFASawmillGuy • 9:39p, 10/26/26
I agree with your take on not taking HCU lightly. All that you said Plus the fact that Lamar awaits us the following Saturday.
Jacks need to maintain the one week at a time vision and dispose of HCU before giving Lamar any thought.
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7:15a, 10/27/26
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7:51a, 10/27/26
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9:13a, 10/27/26
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Texasheli
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3:19p
AI analysis

Stephen F. Austin vs. Houston Christian Individual Player Impact Analysis
October 31, 2026 Based on 2026 statistics through October 24

Looking at individual players changes how I view this matchup. SFA has the stronger overall roster statistically, but Houston Christian has several players capable of producing explosive plays and keeping the game competitive.
The most important matchup is SFA's rushing attack against HCU's defense. However, turnovers, quarterback efficiency, and explosive receiving plays could determine whether SFA wins comfortably or HCU makes it close.
Top 8 players most likely to influence the outcome
Ranked by my assessment of game impact, not an official player ranking.


1. Gavin Rutherford
Highest impact
SFA Quarterback
1,874 passing yards 21 passing TD 66.5% completions
Rutherford has the greatest ability to control the game through both passing and rushing. His five rushing touchdowns also make him a red-zone threat. If he avoids turnovers and sustains drives, HCU will have difficulty matching SFA's scoring.
Projected contribution: 220260 passing yards, 23 total TD.


2. Jaylen Jenkins
SFA Running back
574 rushing yards 6.3 yards/carry 4 TD
Jenkins is potentially the most important matchup advantage. HCU has allowed approximately 208 rushing yards per game. His ability to create first downs and control the clock could prevent HCU from getting enough possessions.
Projected contribution: 95125 rushing yards, 1 TD.

3. Cutter Stewart
HCU Quarterback
1,086 passing yards 10 passing TD 265 rushing yards
Stewart is HCU's most important player. His mobility can extend drives, but his 53.8% completion rate is a concern against SFA's pass defense. HCU needs him to be efficient on third down and protect the football.
Projected contribution: 150190 passing yards, 3045 rushing yards.


4. Bugs Mortimer
SFA Wide receiver
474 receiving yards 7 receiving TD
Mortimer is Rutherford's most dangerous proven scoring target. If HCU commits extra defenders to stopping the run, Mortimer could exploit single coverage.
Projected contribution: 6595 receiving yards, 1 TD.


5. Makai Frisby
SFA Defensive back
4 interceptions
Frisby could be the defensive difference-maker. HCU will likely need to throw in obvious passing situations if it falls behind. A Frisby interception could immediately turn a close game into a two-possession lead.
Impact indicator: interceptions and passes defended.

6. Jamaal Hall II
HCU Wide receiver
417 receiving yards 18.1 yards/reception
Hall is HCU's leading receiving-yardage threat. His big-play ability offers HCU a way to score without needing long, sustained drives against SFA's defense.
Projected contribution: 5585 receiving yards.

7. Champ Dozier
HCU Running back
391 rushing yards 191 receiving yards 3 total TD
Dozier is a dual-threat back who could be particularly useful on screens and short passes when SFA applies pressure. He is one of HCU's best options for creating yards after the catch.
Projected contribution: 6085 combined yards.

8. Jaydon Eason
SFA Defensive line
5.5 sacks
Eason's ability to pressure Stewart could be crucial. SFA needs to prevent Stewart from escaping the pocket and finding Hall on downfield throws.
Impact indicator: sacks, quarterback pressures and third-down stops.
Player statistics: SFA athletics, CBS Sports, CollegeFootballDigest and Houston Christian's official 2026 cumulative statistics. Projected contributions are my estimates, not reported statistics.

Stephen F. Austin+3
Additional players who could change the outcome
Three more players deserve attention.

Speedy Jones, RB
SFA
429 rushing yards, 7.4 yards/carry
Explosive second rushing option

Ja'Ryan Wallace, WR
HCU
265 receiving yards, 3 TD
Another downfield scoring threat

Malachi Williams, LB
SFA
45 tackles
Important to containing HCU's rushing attack
SFA's depth at running back is especially significant. Jenkins and Jones have combined for 1,003 rushing yards, giving SFA two productive backs to rotate against HCU's defense.

Three individual matchups to watch

Jenkins and Jones vs. HCU's defensive front
This is the strongest statistical mismatch. If SFA's backs consistently gain five or more yards per carry, SFA can dictate the tempo and create favorable passing situations for Rutherford.

Cutter Stewart and Jamaal Hall II vs. SFA's secondary
HCU's best opportunity to outperform the prediction is through explosive passing plays. Hall averages more than 18 yards per reception, but Stewart must avoid dangerous throws toward Frisby.

Jaydon Eason vs. HCU's pass protection
Pressure without heavy blitzing would allow SFA to keep more defenders in coverage. That could limit both Stewart's scrambling opportunities and HCU's deep passing game.
How player performance could change the prediction
Select a player-performance scenario

Expected production from both teams' key players. SFA's rushing depth and defense remain decisive.

Illustrative scenarios, not additional Monte Carlo simulations.

Final assessment
The three players I would watch most closely are Gavin Rutherford, Jaylen Jenkins, and Cutter Stewart. Rutherford has the highest overall influence, Jenkins has the most favorable statistical matchup, and Stewart has the greatest responsibility for keeping HCU competitive.

My prediction remains SFA 34 HCU20. However, the individual-player analysis suggests SFA has a credible path to scoring more than 40 points if its rushing attack performs as expected and Rutherford avoids turnovers.
The biggest remaining uncertainty is player availability. I have not confirmed the final injury report or starting lineup, so the assessment assumes these players are available and receive their normal workloads.


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