There was no shortage of drama in the final regular season week of Southland Conference men's basketball competition. And yet, here we are, with the seeds set, and absolutely nothing aside from this bracket actually decided: Because like mid-major leagues around the country, each with a single bid to the Big Dance, nothing is really determined until the madness of the conference tournament subsides. In other words, if you haven't paid even the slightest attention to college basketball all season, that's really no problem.
The Southland Conference is not having a particularly good year from a competitive standpoint. The abundant standings ties and subsequent tie breakers are less an indication of celebrated parity and more of general clumsiness. Not a single team managed to eclipse the 20-win mark, possibly for the first time ever (we only checked back to the year 2000).
But still, someone has to emerge as the inevitable 16-seed from the SLC. The bright lights and big stage of the NCAA Tournament are pretty sweet, 20 wins or not. And someone from this list will punch their ticket on Saturday.
It all begins in Katy tomorrow, and we'll be there every day to bring you the most up-to-date information on what's going down in the Merrell Center. Make sure you tune in and stay engaged as the week unfolds, and in the meantime, have a look at everything you need to know about the field of eight teams competing for the Southland Conference's NCAA Tournament berth:
1. New Orleans
2016-17 record: 18-11 (13-5) | Preseason Polls: 9th/10th | Expectations: Exceeded
Nobody expected New Orleans to be anything close to what they turned into this season. Taking advantage of a league-wide down year, the Privateers jumped at an opportunity to play spoiler. Led by Southland Conference Coach of the Year Mark Slessinger, and Player of the Year Erik Thomas, this team came flying to the top out of mostly thin air.
There are no significant roster upgrades from last year's team that finished 6-12. There's no definitive way to quantify how this happened. It defies logic, mostly. But a combination of ineptitude around the league, suffocating defense, a ton of experience, and a player in Thomas who nearly doubled his statistical production from a year earlier, the Privateers are sitting atop the SLC in their first postseason appearance in some time. They're a Cinderella, of sorts, and deserve the attention they're getting.
That said, let's also not pretend that this program is suddenly a power in the league. It's not. This is mostly a senior-led team, peaking now, and probably a few years removed from anything like this again.
But who knows? It's not like anyone saw it coming this year either.
2. Texas A&M-CC
2016-17 record: 19-10 (12-6) | Preseason Polls: 3rd/3rd | Expectations: Mostly Met
The Islanders of Texas A&M-Corpus Christi lost more talent and scoring than any team in the Southland Conference besides Stephen F. Austin. There was one reason that everyone still thought this team was a contender: Rashawn Thomas.
The Islanders' forward has been tearing up the SLC for most of his college career and looked poised through most of the non-conference season to wreak havoc on the league in his final year. But then league games began and the bottom fell out. By the end of January, the Islanders sat at 2-5. Thomas had been suspended by his coach for an unknown reason and the senior year of one of the league's rare talents seemed mostly wasted.
But, it wasn't too late. The Islanders clicked eventually and Willis Wilson's squad finally became what we already thought they were. Texas A&M-CC rattled off nine-straight victories, most by comfortable margins before running into a Houston Baptist buzz saw in the last week of the regular season. It was just enough to keep them a game shy of sneaking into a conference championship tie. The three-way tie breaker for second broke in their favor, placing the Islanders in the #2 seed, and as the flashy favorite to win the whole thing.
At least,
Mid-Major Madness thinks so. Islanders fans will hope they're right, since this is arguably their best shot at a tournament berth for at least a few years.
3. Stephen F. Austin
2016-17 record: 17-13 (12-6) | Preseason Polls: 2nd/2nd | Expectations: Fell Short
Clearly the national name brand of the Southland Conference (at least in college basketball circles), Stephen F. Austin's expectations were never really fair. The most reasonable saw a team that lost almost all of its scoring from the previous season, their primary returner missing half the season due to injury, a new coach, and clear growing pains from a talented but very raw roster. Kyle Keller who was tapped to lead the Lumberjacks, after Brad Underwood left for Oklahoma State, endured a lot more injury-related adversity than most realize. Still, until choking on Northwestern State in the final week of the regular season, the Lumberjacks were in a good position to claim a fifth-straight SLC title.
The Jacks are the single worst three-point shooting team in the conference, but between solid (sometimes dominant) defense and hammering the paint, they can often find a way to get it done anyhow. The Jacks' style helps counter some of the early scoring droughts they saw in the season. It remains their Achilles' heel, but point-blank shots from forwards TJ Holyfield and Leon Gilmore on the low post have certainly moved the needle in the right direction since an early loss to a terrible McNeese State.
SFA sets itself apart from the field as the only team to have beaten every other member of this list at least once this season. The Lumberjacks split the season series with Sam Houston State and New Orleans, but otherwise the remaining conference losses were to teams either ineligible for the postseason, or just really, really bad.
They are perhaps the most unpredictable. Good enough to beat anyone, bad enough to do the opposite. With one senior and a young core of talent, the Lumberjacks are probably not going anywhere but up after this season.
4. Houston Baptist
2016-17 record: 17-12 (12-6) | Preseason Polls: 5th/4th | Expectations: Exceeded
Part of the three-way tie for second place, Houston Baptist enters the league tournament as easily hottest team in the field. There aren't many spectacular athletes on this team, but they have size, they play solid basketball, and they win games. The Huskies started the season at 4-6 before winning each of their last nine.
One conference coach said this week that the Huskies are a completely different team than they were early in the year. The results have certainly shown that. If not for missing out on the extra bye because of tie breakers, Houston Baptist would probably be the clear favorite in Katy. As it stands, they'll need to get by the winner of Sam Houston State/Central Arkansas for a shot at New Orleans in the semis.
The Huskies play with a lot of size and have one of the SLC's only true centers in Josh Ibarra. With the run and gun style many teams chose to adapt until recently, very few Southland Conference teams are really built to beat the Huskies from a personnel standpoint. Their offense is lethal, averaging 78.1 per game and doing most of it with size mismatches.
There are some young, solid returners next year that should keep things interesting down in Houston. The Huskies have trended up in every season since they joined the Southland Conference. Few would be surprised if this is the year they break onto the national stage.
5. Sam Houston State
2016-17 record: 19-12 (10-8) | Preseason Polls: 1st/1st | Expectations: Fell Short
The preseason favorite and clear leader at the halfway point of the conference season, Sam Houston State essentially collapsed down the stretch. They played Stephen F. Austin in early February for an outright lead in what many saw as the tipping point in the race for the top spot. The Bearkats won, improved to 8-2 (having won all of those in a row) and looked like they could cruise to the title.
Instead, they only won two more the rest of the way. Injuries played a role, but more importantly, offensive incompetence and regression defensively has cost Sam Houston State the title everyone assumed they could grab in the otherwise down year for the SLC. The Bearkats are an experienced team, possibly in a peak season, and this will go down as a magnificent missed opportunity if they cannot find a way to change their fortune with four wins this week.
They lack a clear star player, but managed to overcome that during the non-conference season and through January with solid team basketball. Clearly, that is no longer enough. Jason Hooten has battled the narrative of mediocrity in Huntsville for awhile now. Unfortunately, the Kats will have a lot of work to do if they intend to change that this week.
Sam Houston State is limping into Katy, trending down, and may not have a roster with this level of talent and experience again for some time.
6. Lamar
2016-17 record: 18-13 (10-8) | Preseason Polls: 12th/12th | Expectations: Exceeded
The league's bottom-dweller from a year ago, Lamar was hoping to show any kind of improvement after their 3-15 campaign in 2015-16. Tic Price inherited a pretty big mess when he fell into the job back in 2014 with the firing of Pat Knight. The former Memphis coach has done an admirable job in his third full season, leading the Cardinals back to relevance and beyond where most thought they'd be at this stage.
Lamar is arguably the most complete basketball team in the conference, still green in some areas, but with personnel to counter every style of play across the SLC. That makes Lamar particularly dangerous in a tournament environment with little preparation time and a fast-paced atmosphere. The Cardinals ranked behind only New Orleans in average scoring margin (+3.9) and could certainly play spoiler at least once this next week.
Price will return nearly his entire team when their postseason run concludes. The Cardinals are definitely moving up and could be a big player this next season.
7. Southeastern Louisiana
2016-17 record: 18-13 (10-8) | Preseason Polls: 7th/8th | Expectations: Mostly Met
Southeastern Louisiana was one of the early surprises in the SLC, starting 4-2 in the conference after a better-than-expected non-conference season. Most SELA fans would probably have been thrilled in the preseason to learn their team would earn a postseason berth and the #7 seed - but expectations inflated as the year progressed, and many even saw them as a title contender in mid-January.
Nevertheless, Southeastern continues to stay alive in games by playing a hard-nosed style of defense that really compares in a lot of ways to what Stephen F. Austin and Sam Houston State do. They are undersized but make up for it with tenacity and effort. Unfortunately, SELA has only mustered 69.2 points per game on the offensive end, enough to negatively counter their defensive excellence and push the Lions into the depths of mediocrity.
Of course, they say defense wins championships. If the Lions run into a team struggling with jump shot trouble, they could definitely make a run from the 7th spot. Marlain Veal is a talented young player and Jay Ladner will return most of his team in a year. Southeastern is probably not ready to contend seriously for a title any time soon, but glimpses of defensive dominance this season are probably a good preview of what is to come for the Lions.
8. Central Arkansas
2016-17 record: 8-23 (7-11) | Preseason Polls: 11th/9th | Expectations: Mostly Met
Central Arkansas has legitimately been one of the worst teams in the country over the last few years and any kind of postseason berth is a step in the right direction.
That said, the Bears lost their last five games and only snuck into the tournament after a last-second tie breaker that originally ruled in favor of Nicholls was corrected. They're not playing well right now, but the Bears have the physical capability of beating anyone in a race to 100.
With the best pure offensive talent in the SLC, essentially the opposite of Southeastern Louisiana, UCA plays very, very small. They'll sometimes start a forward who will play minutes, but more than not, the Bears have five guards on the floor. Five guards who can shoot, score a lot of points, and defend almost nothing with size.
Most people around the league seem to think Central Arkansas is a couple years away from being pretty good. Jordan Howard might be the best scorer in the conference and he only has a year left - so that may not be as true as some think. UCA will always be dangerous because their scoring is so lethal, and if a team has an off-night offensively, it could cost them dearly. But the Bears are otherwise a bizarrely-constructed, undersized 8-win team. Dangerous enough to pull off an upset, but probably just one-and-done.